MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #48A (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY JULY 2 2022 10:00 AM EDT...
The following is a special update on area of interest #11 located on the Carolina coast and mentioned in full update #48 on the home page of this site… which has become Tropical Storm Colin as of 5 AM EDT. For information on Tropical Storm Bonnie and the rest of the Atlantic tropics… refer to full update #48.
TROPICAL STORM COLIN… Satellite image of newly-formed Tropical Storm Colin taken at 1246Z. The center of the storm is pointed to with the red arrow:
The rapid-forming tropical low located on the coastal Carolinas has continued to impress in terms of how fast it organized… and is now Tropical Storm Colin as of 5 AM EDT. Colin itself is not an impressive tropical storm while located under the northeast side of an upper ridge in the region… exposing it to mid-latitude upper westerly shearing flow which is displacing the thunderstorm activity to the east of the swirl center. This… combined with land interaction with the Carolina coast… is likely to hamper Colin’s ability to strengthen… therefore I agree with the NHC intensity forecast which shows no additional strengthening.
Colin is currently sandwiched between an eastern US surface ridge and western Atlantic surface ridge. A narrow weakness between the two ridges is caused by the surface cold front being pushed by the current east Canada frontal low… therefore Colin is expected to continue northeast in this weakness and across the Carolina coast over the next 24 hours… and then merge with the incoming cold front by 48 hours while moving offshore. The merger with the front… cooler water temps just north of the Gulf Stream… and increased shear caused by a jet on the south side of the upper vortex also approaching from Canada… are expected to bring an end to to Colin by 48 hours.
The following are expected impacts to land areas from Colin:
(1) Possible heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding on coastal North Carolina in the next 24 hours
(2) Due to westerly shear… the strongest thunderstorms and tropical storm force gusts will be located east of the Colin’s center and hence offshore. However the southeast gusty side of Colin may overspread the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras in the next 24 hours.
(3) Choppy waters are possible from northeastern South Carolina to southeastern Maryland as Colin passes by.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1200Z Jul 2)… 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just inland over northeastern South Carolina at 33.6N-79.3W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 3)… 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the northeast coast of North Carolina at 36N-76W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 4)… Absorbed by cold front while in northwest Atlantic while located at 37.5N-72W