BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #47

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...FRIDAY JULY 1 2022 12:18 AM EDT...

Three areas of interest in the Atlantic tropics remain as July starts:

(1) A vigorous tropical wave of low pressure now in the southern Caribbean Sea with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation as it moves toward Central America... see area of interest #8 section below for more information.

(2) A tropical low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is drifting north toward the Texas coast... see area of interest #9 section below for more details.

(3) A pair of tropical waves in the central tropical Atlantic which have recently merged... see area of interest #10 section below for more details.


New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 through #10 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.


AREA OF INTEREST #8 (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO)... A vigorous and well-organized tropical wave of low pressure continues racing west across the southern Caribbean Sea. Although the wave is not technically a tropical storm while the low pressure center still lacks a fully closed spin due to its fast foward speed... it is still expected to do so shortly as it is marching away from South America… into open Caribbean waters where the negative effect of land interaction is absent. Therefore I am continuing a tropical cyclone formation forecast with a specific track and intensity forecast.


The track forecast remains straightforward to the west at a continued quick speed. This is due to the strong deep-layer Atlantic ridge whose west side has been re-enforced by the current eastern US surface ridge that has merged with it. The eastern US surface ridge through 120 hours will remain in place while supported by the southwestern convergence zone an upper vortex to drop southeast across central and eastern Canada. Once in the eastern Pacific… the end of the 5-day (120 hour) forecast track has a slow down and increase in northward angle as this system finally reaches the west end of the steering eastern US/west Atlantic ridge. However a sharp north angle is not shown in the models as this system is expected to be a strong tropical cyclone by day 5… tall enough to be influenced by an upper ridge cell expected to be over southwestern Mexico.


The intensity forecast is a balance between the fact that conditions for development are favorable with this system expected to stay below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow... and the fact this system will continue moving rapidly which will make it challenging for this system to initially establish a closed circulation. Therefore a gradual strengthening rate is shown in the southern Caribbean Sea in the next 24 hours... and then again in the eastern Pacific from 72 to 96 hours. More rapid strengthening than shown in the forecast below is possible from 96 to 120 hours as this system slows down… however waiting to see how well-established this system will be in the eastern Pacific before projecting a more rapid strengthening rate. Note the intensity projection takes a dip around 48 hours due to expected landfall across southern Nicaragua. However due to the rapid forward speed of this system which is expected to continue... it seem logical that the period of land interaction with Nicaragua will be short-lived enough to allow this system to survive and continue on in the eastern Pacific. The models remain mostly in agreement with this idea... which would mean this system would keep its Atlantic basin assigned name in the eastern Pacific. Therefore I will also be continuing forecasts on this system as it continues into the eastern Pacific.


With this forecast...the following impacts to land areas are anticipated:

(1) Interests in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica should continue to prepare for possible strong tropical storm conditions (gusty winds with some damage potential... heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential... and coastal sea swells). Such conditions would arrive Saturday.

(3) Once in the eastern Pacific... this system could re-strengthen which would induce coastal sea swells for the south coasts of Mexico and Guatemala next week. Sea swells are also possible for the coast of El Salvador if this system recovers more quickly than currently forecast upon its entry into the eastern Pacific.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Jun 30)...Tropical low centered northwest of Colobmia at 12N-74.9W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 1)...50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the southern Caribbean Sea at 12.5N-81W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 2)...30 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered over western Nicarauga at 12.5N-87W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 3)...50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the eastern Pacific at 12.5N-92.5W

IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 4)...70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the eastern Pacific at 12.5N-97.5W

IOH 120 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 5)…85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 13.5N-102W


AREA OF INTEREST #9...The tropical low pressure system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has been unable to overcome the southwesterly shear in the region… with the most recent satellite frames showing a loss of all thunderstorm activity and a sheared-off mid-level cloud swirl advancing north into the Texas/Louisiana border. The shear is present as this system remains on the west side of the upper ridge in the region where the upper flow is less anticyclonic and more linear and coming from the southwest. The tropical low will also soon shift north into the Texas coast while steered north on the west side of the current eastern US surface ridge. In short… the impending land interaction and southwesterly shear have brought tropical cyclone formation potential to an end… and this is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over southern Texas near 29.8N-97.8W)


AREA OF INTEREST #10...The pair of tropical waves of low pressure in the central Atlantic… to the east of the Lesser Antilles… have merged into a singular wave over the last 24 hours. As of late… the axis of the merged wave was passing 55W longitude. Although the wave’s center of spin appears to be located further south where it is less influenced by the dry Saharan air to the north…. as of late the spin lacks widespread thunderstorm activity. Therefore it is unlikely the wave will develop before reaching higher wind shear levels induced by upper vorticity in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. I plan this to be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 1)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Lesser Antilles near 12.5N-61W)


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/)

1200Z (Jun 30) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested just offshore of the Nicarauga/Costa Rica border at 30 hours... after crossing Central America reaches the eastern Pacific at 60 hours as a remnant low... redevelops into a tropical cyclone near 13N-94.5W at 84 hours... tropical cyclone located at 15N-103W at 120 hours.

**For area of interest #9... no development shown

**For area of interest #10...develops into a tropical low just east of the Lesser Antilles at 24 hours... after crossing the Lesser Antilles and reaching waters due south of Puerto Rico the tropical low opens back to a wave at 48 hours.


1200Z (Jun 30) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested at 11.5N-80.5W at 24 hours... makes landfall at the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border just before 48 hours... after emerging into the eastern Pacific rapidly re-strengthens at a location just offshore of El Salvador at 72 hours... tropical cyclone located just offshore of southwestern Mexico near 16N-101.5W at 120 hours.

**For area of interest #9... no development shown

**For area of interest #10...no development shown


1200Z (Jun 30) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested just offshore of the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border at 30 hours... while maintaing tropical cyclone status it reaches the eastern Pacific at 60 hours... located at 13.5N-100W at 120 hours.

**For area of interest #9... no development shown

**For area of interest #10... tropical wave organizes into a tropical low east of the southern Lesser Antilles at 18 hours... opens back to a wave just after crossing the southern Lesser Antilles at 36 hours.


0600Z (Jun 30) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #8...tropical cyclone formation suggested at 30 hours near 11N-78W... makes landfall in southeastern Nicaragua at 66 hours... no redevelopment forecast in the eastern Pacific.

**For area of interest #9... no development shown

**For area of interest #10...initialized as a tropical low near 9N-53W... while crossing the Lesser Antilles at 42 hours opens to a wave... wave only briefly re-establishes a low pressure center in the northeastern Caribbean Sea at 48 hours after which time no development forecast.

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