*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY JUNE 27 2022 1:55 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics remain busy as we move toward the end of June with two current areas of interest being monitored for further development:
(1) A vigorous tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has moderate to high potential to become a tropical cyclone as it barrels toward the northeast coast of Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean islands in the days ahead... see area of interest #8 section below for more details.
(2) The northwest end of a surface trough in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has evolved into a tropical low located over southern Mississippi and Louisiana... see area of interest #9 section below for more details.
Elsewhere... a pair of additional vigorous tropical waves is apparent on satellite imagery to the east of area of interest #8... one near 30W longitude and another that has recently departed the west coast of Africa. A vast tropical upper ridge with low shear and upper outflow is expected to persist over the eastern tropical Atlantic... therefore barring any dry saharan air intrusions conditions are also conducive for development of these waves. Will monitor computer models and current observations to see if any of these waves warrant an upgrade to an area of interest in future updates.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 and #9 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #8... The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic continues barreling westward while en route to northeastern Venezuela and southeastern region of the Caribbean Sea. While thunderstorm activity has increased in amount and areal coverage over the last 24 hours...it is less organized while having fewer banding features. As a result I have kept peak 5-day odds of tropical cyclone formation to 70% instead of raising them further as the NHC has done in their outlook. I have also lowered shorter-term odds of development which results in a longer ramp-up time to the 70% odds. In the updated outlook below... the 70% is reached at 120 hours once this system clears the South American land mass (northern Venezuela and far northern Colombia) and heads into the open south-central Caribbean waters where land interaction is no longer a factor. This is also where recent runs of the CMC... NAVGEM... GFS... and ECMWF models agree that this system will be a tropical cyclone. It should be noted that other than potential land interaction with South America... conditions for tropical cyclone formation are otherwise favorable as this system will remain below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow.
As of 0000Z earlier this evening the apparent center of rotation of the tropical wave on satellite animation was passing 8N-46W... and the updated track forecast below is adjusted based on this initial position. The result is this system reaches northeastern Venezuela and southern Caribbean Sea sooner. The track is expected to continue west with little northward angle as the strong Atlantic deep-layer ridge will persist unabated during the 5-day forecast period. In particular... a strengthening surface ridge to approach from the western US (to quickly build in the wake of the current eastern Canada frontal low) will merge with the west side of the Atlantic deep-layer ridge... only helping to keep the Atlantic ridge intact. With this forecast track:
(1) Interests in southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... and the northeast coast of Venezuela should be aware of this tropical wave as it has potential to cross the region as a tropical cyclone by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Preparations for gusty winds and costal sea swells may need to occur tomorrow or early Tuesday if tropical cyclone formaiton occurs in the short-term.
(2) Interests in Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao should also be aware of this wave as it has potential to cross the region as a tropical cyclone by late Wednesday or Thursday. Preparations for gusty winds and costal sea swells may need to occur Tuesday or early Wednesday if tropical cyclone formaiton occurs in the short-term.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-52W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Trinidad near 10N-58W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean just offshore of northeastern Venezuela near 11N-64.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)... 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just west of Aruba and offshore of northwestern Venezuela near 12.2N-71W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-central Caribbean Sea near 13N-77.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #9...The surface trough of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico extends northwest into southeastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. The northwest end of the surface trough appears to have fired enough rotating thunderstorms to develop a tropical low pressure spin over Louisiana and Mississippi. The tropical low and thunderstorms are being supported by the outflow of the upper ridge that has been persisting over the southeastern US. The tropical low is expected to move west-southwest around the south side of the approaching western US surface ridge... however because of its current inland location I currently forecast that the tropical low will not have enough exposure to the Gulf of Mexico for tropical cyclone formation and have dropped odds of development to 0%. This could change if the tropical low loses dominance and the offshore portion of the surface trough develops a new circulation... however for now I plan this to be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned by the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook by my next update.
On a final note... even without tropical cyclone formation this system has produced heavy rainfall across southern Mississippi and Louisiana. Additional heavy rainfall across Louisiana... eventually spreading toward the coastal region of Texas in the days ahead... could produce some flash flooding.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Texas/Louisiana border near 29.8N-93.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 26) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 7.5N-52.5W at 36 hours... crosses Trinidad at 60 hours as a strengthening tropical cyclone... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 84 to 90 hours... located in the southern Caribbean near 12.2N-80.2W at 120 hours as a potentially intense tropical cyclone
**For area of interest #9... no development shown
1200Z (Jun 26) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles just before 72 hours while becoming a tropical depression... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) just before 96 hours while still a tropical depression...located in the southern Caribbean Sea near 13N-79W at 120 hours as a tropical storm.
**For area of interest #9... no development shown
1800Z (Jun 26) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles and northeastern Venezeula as a tropical wave at 66 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested just offshore of Venezuela at 75 hours near 11.9N-64.5W at 75 hours... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 84 to 90 hours after which time it makes landfall in northwestern Venezeula at 96 hours... crosses far northern Colombia at 105 hours... located in the southern Caribbean near 12.2N-77.2W as a compact tropical cyclone.
**For area of interest #9... a defined surface low pressure center develops offshore of Texas near 27.5N-94.5W at 45 hours... makes landfall just north of the Texas/Louisiana border at 72 hours... drifts north-northeast into inland eastern Texas where it weakens to a surface trough and then dissipates through 111 hours.
**Tropical wave currently near 30W longitude approaches the central Lesser Antilles at 129 hours as a tropical low.
1800Z (Jun 26) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 9.2N-52.5W at 30 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 54 hours... crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 72 to 78 hours... reaches the souhern Caribbean Sea near 12.5N-79W at 120 hours.
**For area of interest #9... a defined surface low pressure center develops offshore of the Texas/Mexico border near 25.5N-94.5W at 54 hours... makes landfall just north of the Texas/Mexico border at 84 hours after which time it dissipates.
**Tropical wave currently near 30W longitude develops into a tropical low near 9.8N-48.5W at 84 hours... tropical low weakens back to a wave as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles at 120 hours.