*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SUNDAY JUNE 26 2022 2:33 AM EDT...
A vigorous tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic has become better organized and tropical cyclone formation is more likely as it barrels toward the northeast coast of Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean islands in the days ahead… see area of interest #8 section below for more details.
Elsewhere… the frontal low that was over northern Florida has moved offshore into the northeast Gulf of Mexico… and continues to be monitored for signs of tropical development. See area of interest #9 section below for more details.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 and #9 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #8… The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure that was in the eastern tropical Atlantic is now rolling its way westward across the central tropical Atlantic. For much of Saturday it appeared the dry Saharan air to the north got the best of the wave while it lacked thunderstorm activity. However as of this early morning a circular mass of strong thunderstorms over and west of the wave’s center of rotation has taken hold… bringing the wave one step closer to tropical cyclone formation. In the updated outlook below shorter-term odds of tropical cyclone formation are notably raised to 50%. I have also raised longer-term odds of development to 70%… matching the NHC as of this writing. Given this wave’s history with dry Saharan air ingestion… will wait and see if it continues to organize or gets set back by the dry air again. If it continues to organize… will raise peak odds above 70% in future updates… especially considering that conditions are otherwise conducive for development when considering the wave will remain below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow.
The updated track forecast in the outlook below remains the same… straightforward in the westward direction with little northward angle as the strong Atlantic deep-layer ridge will persist unabated during the 5-day forecast period. In particular… a strengthening surface ridge to approach from the western US (to quickly build in the wake of the current central Canada frontal low) will merge with the west side of the Atlantic deep-layer ridge… only helping to keep the Atlantic ridge intact. With this forecast track:
(1) Interests in southern Lesser Antilles… Trinidad and Tobago… and the northeast coast of Venezuela should be aware of this tropical wave as it has potential to cross the region as a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. Preparations for gusty winds and costal sea swells may need to start Monday.
(2) Interests in Aruba… Bonaire… and Curacao should also be aware of this wave as it has potential to cross the region as a tropical cyclone by Thursday.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)… 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-44W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)… 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-50W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Trinidad near 10N-56W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)… 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean to the southwest of the southern Lesser Antilles and offshore of Venezuela near 11N-62.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)…70% chance of tropical cyclone formation (In Vicinity of Aruba… Bonaire… Curacao near 12.2N-69.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #9…The surface frontal low that was over northern Florida has degenerated into a surface trough of low pressure in the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface trough is expected to glide west-southwest across the northern Gulf due to a strengthening surface ridge to approach from the western US… to quickly build in the wake of the current central Canada frontal low. A north angle in track is expected by day 4 as this system rounds the southwest corner of the passing surface ridge. In the upper levels…. tropical development potential of the surface trough will be supported by a low shear and upper outflow environment induced by the nearby southeast US upper ridge to persist during the forecast period. Also waters in the northern Gulf are plenty warm… at 30 deg C. However I have lowered peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20% as the surface trough is currently disorganized while lacking a well-defined center of spin… and the models have reduced their support in showing this system developing. However I still recommend interests across coastal Louisiana and Texas to be aware of this system… even without tropical cyclone formation it could produce heavy rainfall with some flooding potential.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of southeastern Louisiana near 28.5N-87.8W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of southeastern Louisiana near 28.2N-90.2W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of southwestern Louisiana near 28.5N-93W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Texas near 29.5N-95.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 25) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #8… tropical cyclone formation suggested near 7.5N-53.5W at 66 hours… crosses Trinidad at 90 hours as a strengthening tropical cyclone… crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 108 to 114 hours… located just west of the ABC islands and just offshore of northwest Venezuela at 120 hours
**For area of interest #9… no development shown
1200Z (Jun 25) ECMWF Model Run.…
**For area of interest #8…tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10.5N-55.2W at 72 hours… crosses the southern Lesser Antilles between 72 and 96 hours.. located in the central Caribbean near 13.5N-72.5W at 120 hours
**For area of interest #9… no development shown
1800Z (Jun 25) GFS Model Run...
** For area of interest #8… tropical wave crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 87 hours… crosses Aruba Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands) from 108 to 111 hours while evolving into a tropical low… tropical cyclone formation suggested just offshore of the Colombia/Venezuela border at 120 hours
**For area of interest #9… no development shown
1200Z (Jun 25) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #8… no development shown
**For area of interest #9… no development shown