BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #42

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


…SATURDAY JUNE 25 2022 5:45 AM EDT...

A vigorous tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic remains organized and is continues to be an area of interest for development… see area of interest #8 section below for more details. In addition… a frontal low expected to slide west-southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days is also a new area of interest for tropical development… see area of interest #9 section below for more details.


Elsewhere… a string of cut-off upper vorticity remains settled across the Bay of Campeche… the northwestern Caribbean Sea… and western Atlantic near the northern Caribbean islands. The upper vorticity string is weakening while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air… which has allowed the tropical upper ridge cell currently over the southern Caribbean to expand. The active surface tropical wave in the region however has made landfall across Central America… and tropical development is not anticipated in the southern Caribbean as a result. The wave may bring pockets of heavy rain over Nicaragua… Honduras… and El Salvador over the next day or so.

New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #8 and #9 as I designated the other seven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.


AREA OF INTEREST #8… The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic for much of Friday had reduced thunderstorm activity… likely due to ingestion of dry Saharan air to the north. The wave has made a recovery last night and early this morning with rotation and somewhat organized thunderstorm activity passing in the vicinity of 8N-33W as of 0000Z.


The updated track forecast in the outlook below is adjusted based on the aforementioned 0000Z position of the tropical wave. The track forecast is essentially straightforward in the westward direction due to the strong Atlantic deep-layer ridge to persist unabated during the 5-day forecast period. Some slight northward angle is shown at days 3 to 5 as the wave nears the weaker western Atlantic portion of the ridge where frontal systems leaving North America are having more influence on the ridge. However this is only a slight north angle as the strong ridge will remain intact. In particular… a strengthening surface ridge to approach from the western US (to quickly build in the wake of the current northern US frontal low) will merge with the west side of the Atlantic deep-layer ridge by day 5. I agree with the low NHC short-term odds of tropical cyclone formation of 20% as the wave may continue to struggle with the nearby dry Saharan air mass to the north. Once the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic where dry Saharan air concentrations are less… I ramp up development odds to 50%. This is lower than the NHC’s longer-term outlook as I am waiting to see if the wave survives the current dry Saharan air environment first… and the GFS and NAVGEM models have not joined the ECMWF and CMC in showing development.


Interests in southern Lesser Antilles… Trinidad and Tobago… and the northeast coast of Venezuela should be aware of this tropical wave… as it has potential to cross the region as a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 26)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 8N-38W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-44W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)… 35% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-50W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Trinidad near 10N-56W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)… 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean to the southwest of the southern Lesser Antilles and offshore of Venezuela near 11N-62.5W)


AREA OF INTEREST #9…A surface frontal low has developed Thursday and Friday in the vicinity of northern Florida and southern Georgia… from split flow upper divergence between the east side of the current southeast US upper ridge and west side of the current upper trough in the west Atlantic. Models over the last few days suggested this pocket of low pressure would slide west-southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Model support suggesting some tropical development of this feature began on Friday with the 12Z run of the CMC and now the NHC in their tropical weather outlook as of 2 AM EDT has upgraded the low pressure to an area of interest. This now marks the ninth Atlantic tropical area of interest I have tracked on this blog this year.


The mechanism to steer this system west-southwest into and across the northern Gulf of Mexico will be a strengthening surface ridge to approach from the western US… to quickly build in the wake of the current northern US frontal low. The track forecast in the outlook below calls for an initially sluggish motion caused by the surface ridge weakness of the passing northern US frontal low… followed by an increase in forward progress once the western US surface ridge builds and arrives. A north angle in track is seen by day 5 as this system rounds the southwest side of the passing surface ridge. In the upper levels…. tropical development potential will be supported by a low shear and upper outflow environment induced by the nearby southeast US upper ridge to persist during the forecast period. Also waters in the northern Gulf are plenty warm… at 30 deg C… therefore in conjunction with the above favorable upper atmosphere my peaks odds of development are slightly higher than the NHC as of this writing… at 30%. These odds however are still on the low side due to the lack of model support outside of the CMC. These odds may be adjusted in future updates depending on how this system organizes once in the northern Gulf of Mexico.


I recommend interests across coastal Louisiana and Texas to be aware of a possible tropical disturbance developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead… heavy rainfall is possible.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 26)…0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the Florida panhandle near 29N-86.2W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of southeastern Louisiana near 28.5N-87.8W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)… 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of southeastern Louisiana near 28.2N-90.2W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of southwestern Louisiana near 28.5N-93W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Texas near 29.5N-95.5W)


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jun 24) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #8… tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10N-52.5W at 96 hours… reaches 12.5N-58.8W (south-southeast of Barbados) as a strengthening tropical cyclone at 120 hours

**For area of interest #9... Strengthening surface ridge arriving from the western US pushes the current frontal low over northern Florida west-southwest into and across the northern Gulf of Mexico through 78 hours… possible tropical cyclone formation near 26.2N-94.8W (offshore of Texas) at 126 hours


1200Z (Jun 24) ECMWF Model Run.…

**For area of interest #8… tropical wave evolves into a tropical depression just after crossing the southern Lesser Antilles and entering the southeastern Caribbean Sea at 120 hours

**For area of interest #9... no development shown


1800Z (Jun 24) GFS Model Run...

** For area of interest #8… tropical wave crosses the far southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical low at 108 hours… tropical low located in the southeastern Caribbean Sea offshore of Venezuela at 120 hours

**For area of interest #9... no development shown


1800Z (Jun 24) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #8… no development shown

**For area of interest #9... no development shown

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