*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…FRIDAY JUNE 24 2022 12:34 AM EDT...
See area of interest #7 section below for an update on the current mid-latitude western Atlantic low pressure system.
A vigorous tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic remains organized and is now an area of interest for development… see area of interest #8 section below for more details.
Elsewhere… a string of cut-off upper vorticity remains settled across the Bay of Campeche… the northwestern Caribbean Sea… and western Atlantic near the northern Caribbean islands. The upper vorticity string is weakening while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air… which has allowed the tropical upper ridge currently over the southern Caribbean to expand. A surface tropical wave approaching Nicaragua has taken advantage of the expanding upper ridge’s outflow while producing organized rotating thunderstorm bands… however the wave will soon make landfall in Nicaragua and development is not expected. Additional pockets of heavy rain are expected over Costa Rica… with heavy rainfall also possible over Nicaragua… Honduras… and El Salvador as the wave crosses Central America over the next day or so.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #7 and #8 as I designated the other six of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #7… The broad frontal low that was over the US mid-Atlantic region has quickly moved eastward into offshore waters while pulled around the south side of the current upper vortex in the west Atlantic. Earlier today it appeared their were competing centers of rotation… one near 34N-72.5W that showed some organized thunderstorm activity in its southern semicircle… and a second eastern center near 35N-75W. As of late the eastern center has become the dominant with a sizable swirl on satellite pictures while the western trailing center is quickly losing definition. The dominating eastern center is further removed from the ribbon of warm Gulf Stream waters in the region. At this point the now dominant center will only have a very short-lived exposure to the warm water ribbon while arcing north on the east side of the upper vortex… not enough for any tropical development. Therefore this is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 25)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 39N-65W)
AREA OF INTEREST #8… The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the far eastern tropical Atlantic has so far dodged dry Saharan air lurking to the northwest. This is due to the wave being suppressed to the south by the strong deep-layer ridge dominating the mid-latitudes of the eastern Atlantic. The wave as of this writing is showing signs of organization near 7.5N-26.5W where a concentrated thunderstorm cluster with some rotation is noted. Furthermore model support showing development has increased… with the usually conservative ECMWF model joining the CMC model. The GFS also recently showed development… but in the long range after it forecasts the wave to cross the Lesser Antilles and enter the Caribbean Sea. With all of these observations… it makes sense to upgrade the tropical wave to an area of interest for tropical development. The NHC has already added this wave to their tropical weather outlook earlier on Thursday. This now marks the eighth Atlantic tropical area of Interest I have tracked on this blog this year.
Regarding the track forecast in the outlook below… it is essentially straightforward in the westward direction due to the strong deep-layer ridge to persist unabated during the 5-day forecast period. Some slight northward angle is show at days 4 and 5 as the wave nears the weaker western Atlantic portion of the ridge where frontal systems leaving North America are having more influence on the ridge. However this is only a slight north angle as the strong ridge will remain intact. In essence it appears the southern Lesser Antilles are in line to see impact from this system just after the five day forecast period… and interests here should be aware of this wave due to its potential for development into a tropical cyclone. I agree with the NHC in ramping up the short-term odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20% as the wave is already showing some signs of organization. Once the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic where dry Saharan air concentrations are less… I ramp up development odds to 50%… a little higher than the NHC’s longer-term outlook. This is due to the conservative ECMWF model being onboard for development. A factor that will also favor development is the wave will remain below a vast tropical upper ridge with low shear and upper outflow during the 5-day forecast period.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 25)… 15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 7.5N-31.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 26)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 7.5N-36.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 7.5N-41.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)… 35% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-47.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)… 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9.5N-54.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 23) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #7… surface low dissipates offshore of the northeast US at 78 hours
**For area of interest #8… tropical wave evolves into a surface low near 7.5N-32.5W at 42 hours… tropical cyclone formation suggested near 9.8N-46.5W at 108 hours… reaches 11.2N-51W at 120 hours as a strengthening compact tropical cyclone
1200Z (Jun 23) ECMWF Model Run.…
** For area of interest #7… surface low dissipates near 40N-63W at 48 hours
**For area of interest #8… tropical wave evolves into a surface low near 9N-35W at 48 hours… tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10N-37W at 96 hours… reaches 12N-55W at 120 hours as a strengthening compact tropical cyclone
1800Z (Jun 23) GFS Model Run...
** For area of interest #7… surface low dissipates near 40N-64W at 48 hours
** For area of interest #8… tropical wave evolves into a surface low near 8N-31.5W at 27 hours… tropical low located near 10N-56W at 120 hours
1200Z (Jun 23) NAVGEM Model Run...
** For area of interest #7… surface low dissipates near 40N-64W at 54 hours
**For area of interest #8… tropical wave evolves into large tropical low near 10.5N-35.5W at 120 hours