MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #34
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…FRIDAY JUNE 17 2022 1:07 AM EDT...
See Area of Interest #6 section below for an update on the low pressure area which is currently emerging into the western Caribbean Sea from eastern Nicaragua and Honduras.
Elsewhere… the tail end of the cold front currently rolling across the central United States is expected to settle in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days. While a deep-layer ridge is expected to build to the northwest of the front and provide a low shear environment… the latest model runs suggest that this ridge may also cut-off some of the upper vorticity tied to the frontal system and send it southwest into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where it could suppress upper outflow. Therefore the potential for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico appears low at this time.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #6 as I designated the other five of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #6… Twin tropical low pressure spins are continuing on either side of Central America. The eastern of the two spins has made a northward travel across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras… and is on the verge of entering the western Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave of low pressure incoming from the east has also produced thunderstorm squalls and associated latent heat release/warm core upper outflow well offshore of the Nicaragua/Honduras border which may have also contributed to a northward consolidation of the pre-existing Nicaragua/Honduras tropical low pressure spin. Meanwhile the western of the two low pressure spins in the far eastern Pacific has remained stationary and has consolidated into tropical depression 3E… see the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on 3E as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
The motion of depression 3E and the tropical low pressure of interest emerging into the western Caribbean from Honduras in the last 24 hours is driven by a fujiwhara interaction between the two. In the outlook below… the track forecast for the tropical low pressure of interest is for a westward turn across the western Caribbean… Belize… the southwestern Yucatan peninsula region of Mexico… and Bay of Campeche. The westward turn is expected as a deep-layer ridge builds over the US in the wake of the current central North America frontal system which will soon shift eastward away from the region. Regarding probabilities of tropical cyclone formation for the tropical low pressure of interest… I have raised short-term odds of development to 35% as there has been some improvement to the organization of the thunderstorm activity… particularly on the east side of this system… as it emerges into western Caribbean water. In addition the wind shear has and will continue to relax as the nearby cold-core upper vorticity to the northwest continues to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. Long-term computer model solutions for depression 3E and the tropical low pressure of interest are in two camps… one is that the fujiwhara interaction between the two continues such that the tropical low pressure of interest stays on a more southern track that keeps it over southeastern Mexico and away from Bay of Campeche waters. The other idea is for less of a fujiwhara interaction such that the tropical low pressure has a chance to slide across Bay of Campeche waters and 3E accelerates westward and away. Given that the distance between 3E and the tropical low pressure appears to have increased with 3E being compact in size and the tropical low pressure consolidating further north offshore of Honduras… I see potential for reduced fujiwhara interaction and thus I have not dropped Bay of Campeche development odds below 20%. On the other hand an increased fujiwhara interaction cannot be ruled out and so I have not raised the longer-term development odds above 20% either. Lower odds at the 48…72… and 120 hour forecast points are a reflection of land interaction along the forecast track.
Regarding impacts to land areas:
(1) Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not… the combo of both eastern Pacific depression 3E and this area of interest may cause heavy rains thru the weekend across Honduras… Nicaragua… El Salvador… Guatemala… Belize… and the Mexican provinces Chiapas… Oaxaca… southern Veracruz… Tabasco… Campeche… and southern Quintana Roo. Any excess rains can result in flash flooding or mudslides.
(2) Interests on the south coasts of El Salvador… Guatemala… and Chiapas should be aware that any increased fujiwhara interaction between depression 3E and this area of interest would bring 3E closer… increasing the potential for coastal sea swells and gusty winds this weekend. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on 3E as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
(3) Interests on the north coast of Honduras… and the east coast of Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico (Quintana Roo) should be aware of possible tropical cyclone formation thru tomorrow or early Saturday which would increase the potential for gusty winds and coastal sea swells.
(4) Interests along the coast of Veracruz Mexico should be aware of possible tropical cyclone formation from this area of interest when it passes over or near the Bay of Campeche just after this weekend.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 18)… 35% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of Honduras near 16.2N-85.2W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 19)…10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northern Belize near 17.5N-88.8W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche Mexico coast near 18.8N-92.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 21)… 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just offshore of Veracruz near 20N-95.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 22)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east-central Mexico near 21N-99W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 16) CMC Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
1200Z (Jun 16) ECMWF Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
1200Z (Jun 16) GFS Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… tropical low pressure on the eastern Nicaragua/Honduras border makes landfall on the east coast of Belize at 48 hours while eastern Pacific tropical depression 3E makes landfall over southwestern Guatemala… through 87 hours the tropical low moves west into southeastern Mexico while 3E redevelops offshore of the Guatemala/Mexico border… through 120 hours the tropical low weakens to a trough over southeastern Mexico while 3E moves westward and away.
1200Z (Jun 16) NAVGEM Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… no development shown