BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #29

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


…SUNDAY JUNE 12 2022 12:59 AM EDT...

Showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean Sea that began Friday in a region of upper divergence between the tropical upper ridge in the region and western Cuba upper vorticity have continued as the tropical upper ridge and its associated supporting outflow is expanding. A warm core upper anticyclone over the central US is expected to develop in the warm sector of a strong western North America frontal system… with the anticyclone pushing the western Cuba and also Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity westward and away… which will allow the tropical upper ridge and thunderstorms to expand north and west across the western Caribbean… Central America… and far eastern Pacific. Some of the upper vorticity is expected to be trapped near the northern Yucatan peninsula… while a second area of upper vorticity currently near the Lesser Antilles approaches from the east while also pushed by the US upper anticyclone. These two lobes of upper vorticity could enhance the outflow of the tropical upper ridge and the thunderstorms… therefore a surface gyre of tropical low pressure is likely to form over Central America and adjacent waters in the days ahead:

(1) The CMC and ECMWF models suggest the gyre will establish one consolidated center in the eastern Pacific which would trigger another eastern Pacific area of interest in addition to the current one already located near 100W longitude (See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on potential eastern Pacific development as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity)

(2) The NAVGEM and GFS suggest dual consolidated centers on either side of Central America… resulting in potential for western Caribbean tropical development in addition to eastern Pacific tropical development. If these model trends continue into tomorrow… will likely add an area of interest for tropical development in the Caribbean in my next update.


Elsewhere… upper vorticity over western Canada is separating from the current upper vortex in the northeast Pacific. This upper vorticity is expected to deliver a shortwave upper trough that travels from the northern US plains in 36 hours to the mid-Atlantic US coastal region by 72 hours. The shortwave upper trough will tag team with the current upper vorticity heading into eastern Canada from central Canada to drive a surface cold front into the western Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. The potential for tropical development along the tail end of this front… at a location offshore of the southeastern US… at this time appears possible as wind shear is expected to be low due to the approach of a forecast central US upper anticyclone (see above discussion about possible Caribbean development for the expected origin of the anticyclone). However at this time I have not added this frontal system as an area of interest for tropical development as models have trended away from showing such a solution.

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jun 11) CMC Model Run...

** No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jun 11) ECMWF Model Run...

** No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)

1200Z (Jun 11) GFS Model Run...

**Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone develops offshore of Mexico near 100W longitude at 57 hours and turns westward and away at 111+ hours… also at 111 hours a pair of tropical lows become defined with one located in the Caribbean just offshore of the Nicaragua/Honduras border and another located in the eastern Pacific just offshore of Guatemala/Mexico border… the stationary eastern Pacific low fails to become a tropical cyclone while the westward-moving Caribbean low dominates and becomes a tropical cyclone offshore of northern Honduras at 138 hours… tropical cyclone makes landfall in Belize at 150 hours

1200Z (Jun 11) NAVGEM Model Run...

** Eastern Pacific tropical low becomes defined due south of El Salvador at 42 hours… an additional nearby tropical low becomes defined in the southern Caribbean at 72 hours to the east of southern Nicaragua… the eastern Pacific tropical low becomes a tropical cyclone at 90 hours while moving westward and away while the southern Caribbean low becomes stationary… southern Caribbean low becomes a tropical cyclone at 132 hours… moves north-northwest and makes landfall at 156 hours at the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

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