*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…TUESDAY JUNE 7 2022 10:48 PM EDT...
The tropical upper ridge currently over the Caribbean and eastern Pacific will be the focus for potential tropical development in the days ahead due to its favorable low shear and upper outflow environment:
(1) In the short-term the upper ridge will be suppressed southward toward the eastern Pacific due to cut-off upper vorticity currently in the Gulf of Mexico. This vorticity will be re-enforced by days 3 and 4 by a passing additional shortwave upper trough to eject from the current northeast Pacific upper vortex. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for coverage of any potential eastern Pacific development as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
(2) After day 4… the northeast Pacific upper vortex is forecast to finally shift into western North America where with its eastern divergence zone generates a strong surface frontal system. The warm sector of the frontal system is expected to build a central US upper anticyclone that will push the Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity westward and away… allowing the tropical upper ridge to expand back northward into the western Caribbean. Will be watching for possible western Caribbean development in approximately one week from today… will tag an area of interest in this region in future updates should computer model runs or current observations warrant.
Elsewhere… an additional tropical upper ridge is located in the open central Atlantic. A surface tropical wave of low pressure currently approaching 40W longitude is expected to pass below this upper ridge and is currently producing thunderstorm activity on its south side. However dry Saharan air currently covering the north side of the tropical wave is expected to prevent the wave’s development… and in a couple of days the wave will approach a higher vertical shear environment produced by upper vorticity that will remain parked over the Lesser Antilles islands.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...
**No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
** No Atlantic tropical development shown in the next 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z GFS Model Run...
** Broad low pressure develops in the southern Caribbean just east of Nicaragua at 111 hours… moves west-northwest onto the Central American coast at the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 132 hours… slides west along the north coast of Honduras through 168 hours
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...
** At 114 hours… tropical low pressure develops in the southern Caribbean just east of Nicaragua while a tropical cyclone develops in the eastern Pacific at 10.5N-92.5W… through 168 hours the eastern Pacific tropical cyclone and Caribbean low pressure gradually merge while reaching northern Guatemala.