BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #23A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


…UPDATE… MONDAY JUNE 6 2022 8:13 AM EDT...

While continuing to lack thunderstorms near the center… Tropical Storm Alex has gradually weakened overnight and is currently packing 65 mph maximum sustained winds with a 992 mb central pressure. The storm center is now

passing just north of Bermuda. Observations from the Bermuda weather service (http://www.weather.bm/observations.asp) have shown tropical depression force sustained winds (30-39 mph) over the last several hours with tropical storm force gusts… the highest recorded gust was 59 mph at 8:22 local time. The most recent observation shows sustained winds are now at tropical storm force… with a sustained wind of 44 mph with a gust to 56 mph. Interests in Bermuda should be sheltered in place until tropical storm conditions subside later today.


…SUNDAY JUNE 5 2022 11:32 PM EDT...

Colorized infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Alex approaching Bermuda… taken at 0250Z. Yellow arrow points to the storm center.



As Tropical Storm Alex continues moving east-northeastward to Bermuda… aircraft reconnaissance measured that the storm’s central surface pressure dropped further to 984 mb with max sustained winds climbing to 70 mph… just below hurricane force. However Alex is not forecast to become a hurricane and instead is expected to begin slowly weakening as the thunderstorm activity has weakened while the tropical storm has moved into waters below 26 deg C. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) 11 PM EDT advisory also mentions ingestion of dry air to the north and west as another reason for reduced thunderstorm activity… and more dry and cooler air is expected to be ingested as the cold front lurking just to the north of Alex gets pushed toward the storm by upper vorticity ejecting from the current central Canada upper vortex. As stated by the NHC… evidence that Alex has stopped strengthening is shown by the very latest aircraft reconnaissance data which measured the central pressure rising back up to 988 mb from the earlier 984 mb minimum.


Observations from the Bermuda weather service (http://www.weather.bm/observations.asp) showed that wind gusts are beginning to climb to tropical storm force… specifically a sustained wind measurement of 24 mph with a 37 mph gust as of 22:36 local time. Winds and coastal sea swells will continue to increase through the early morning hours… preparations for Alex in Bermuda should have been completed by now.


For more information on Alex and the rest of the Atlantic tropics… refer to full update #23 available on the home page of this site.

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