*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SUNDAY JUNE 5 2022 12:23 PM EDT...
Satellite image taken of Tropical Storm Alex… which overnight formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Satellite image taken at 1551Z:
What was tagged as Area of Interest #4 (Potential Tropical Cyclone One) in previous blog posts is now Tropical Storm Alex. Tropical storm conditions to reach Bermuda sooner… by tomorrow morning:
After pulling away from the western Bahamas… the organized northeast end of Potential Tropical Cyclone One has overnight aligned with a focal point of upper divergence induced by a weakening batch of upper vorticity to the west. The focal point of upper divergence allowed for a more focused area of dropping surface pressures and the formation of a well-defined surface low pressure center which was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex with 50 mph maximum sustained winds as of 2 AM EDT. As of 8:45 AM EDT… aircraft reconnaissance found Alex had reached 60 mph maximum sustained winds with a 993 mb central surface pressure. As of 11 AM EDT Alex was centered at 30.4N-73.9W while moving quickly to the east-northeast. This is northeast of my previous forecast track as Alex formed at the very northeast end of Potential tropical cyclone one and is moving quickly… therefore Bermuda will see tropical Storm conditions (heavy rain… gusty winds with some damage potential … and coastal sea swells) as soon as tomorrow morning. Preparations for Alex must now be completed by tonight.
Will have an update on Alex and the rest of the Atlantic tropics in the next full birdseye view blog post to be published later today on the home page of this site.