Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

  • NCHurricane2009


Updated: Jun 3

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


As of 5 PM EDT…. the National Hurricane Center has upgraded area of interest #4 to potential tropical cyclone (PTC) one in order to issue tropical storm watches for western Cuba... south Florida… and the Florida Keys. Even if the current dominant center of area of interest #4 (PTC one) does not become circular enough to officially be a tropical cyclone… tropical storm conditions are likely in the watch region between now and Saturday… prepare now. Western Cuba should be done preparing tonight and south Florida and the FlorIda Keys should be done preparing by tomorrow afternoon.

...THURSDAY JUNE 2 2022 2:47 PM EDT...

The following is a special update to reflect changes in area of interest #4 since birdseye view post #19 was published late last evening. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for up-to-the-minute latest information on the disturbance discussed in area of interest #4. See birdseye view post #19 on the home page for information on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.

AREA OF INTEREST 4... Satellite image of tropical low pressure consolidating near the northeast coast of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula taken at 1750Z. Red arrow points to the consolidating surface low pressure spin:

The broad tropical low pressure area over southeastern Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea previously contained an eastern and western low pressure spin. As of this morning and early afternoon...the eastern low pressure spin has lifted northward into the northeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula while absorbing the western circulation...thus becoming the dominant. The increased organization and concentration of the thunderstorm activity around the now-dominant spin indicates that tropical cyclone formation is likely to occur. This special update is to raise my odds of tropical cyclone formation to 90%... the same odds in the latest NHC tropical weather outlook product.

The following is the expected timing for tropical storm conditions (gusty winds... heavy rain... and coastal sea swells) in the days ahead:

(1) For now through Saturday: western Cuba... south Florida and the Florida Keys. For western Cuba now is the time to prepare quickly. For south Florida and the Florida Keys...get ready to prepare and start preparing if tropical storm watches/warnings get issued later today (status of those watches/warnings can be found at the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov))

(2) For Sunday: the western Bahamas... get ready to prepare. Preparations must be done by early Saturday.

(3) Conditions in the northeastern Yucatan should improve going forward as this system is expected to track northeast and away.

(4) This system could approach the vicinity of Bermuda after this weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible if this system remains intact under the wind shear

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 3)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (north coast of Cuba’s west tip near 22.5N-84W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 4)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of southeast Florida near 25N-80W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 5)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeast of the western Bahamas near 27N-76W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 6)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 29N-70W)

27 views0 comments