*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY MAY 30 2022 9:43 PM EDT...
Eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha has made landfall in the Oaxaca region of southeastern Mexico while bringing damaging tropical storm to hurricane force winds... coastal storm surge... and heavy rainfall... see the NHC website at hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on Agatha as coverage on this site is focused on Atlantic basin tropical activity.
For the Atlantic basin... the remnants of Agatha to be located over southeastern Mexico... the divergence zones of upper vorticity currently over Florida and upper vorticity slowly approaching from central Mexico... and upper anticyclonic ridging to be located ahead of (east of) the upper vorticity will create a large region of disturbed weather with increasing rainfall spanning southeastern Mexico... the Bay of Campeche... Belize... western Central America... the western Caribbean... western Cuba... the Cayman Islands... and the western Bahamas in the days ahead. Up to two areas within this disturbed weather pattern may consolidate into areas of interest for tropical cyclone formation... see area of interest #4 and #5 sections below for more information.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current two areas of interest in this blog post are designated #4 and #5 as I designated the first three of this year earlier this month (in previous birdseye view posts on the home page). This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST 4... As of 5 PM EDT... the center of eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha moved northeastward into Oaxaca province in southeastern Mexico near Puerto Angel while steered by upper vorticity approaching from central Mexico and surface southerly flow ahead of a sprawling central US frontal system. The surface convergence of what will be left of Agatha will help kick up thunderstorm activity and associated latent heat release... which in turn will prop up the warm core upper anticyclonic ridge in the region whose outflow will in turn keep surface pressures low and hence drive more surface convergence for additional thunderstorms. The end result of this cycle will be the formation of a broad tropical low pressure system in the vicinity of the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean waters of the Atlantic basin... with the broad low pressure also covering parts of adjacent land areas such as southeastern Mexico and western Central America. Computer models continue to suggest some sort of tropical cyclone formation within this broad low pressure system in the days ahead.
The broad low pressure is expected to track northeast while following the surface ridge weakness associated with the current central US frontal system... as the frontal system and its supporting upper trough shift east with time. Computer models since yesterday remain in agreement that the upper vorticity currently approaching from central Mexico and upper vorticity currently over Florida will merge... which should keep wind shear high and upper outflow suppressed in the Bay of Campeche such that the supportive upper anticyclonic ridge and broad low pressure is likely to thrive further east... over the Yucatan peninsula and western Caribbean Sea. Since the previous outlook’s forecast track showed this scenario... the updated one in the outlook below is unchanged in the short-term. The longer term track is nudged northward in accordance with the latest model trends. However I keep the forecast track south of the latest model consensus as conditions further north will be hostile with higher levels of shear from the aforementioned upper vorticity... and further south in the western Caribbean (offshore of Belize) the optimal outflow of the upper anticyclonic ridge’s core may promote a defined low pressure center as hinted in today’s 12Z GFS model run. It is not clear if a further south center would become the dominant... or later become a separate area of interest while this area of interest continues on at a further north location in a sheared state.
For the next five days... I have raised peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20% as the models suggest have recently agreed on cyclone formation by day 5 or just beyond. However these odds are lower than the NHC’s 40% (as of this writing)... as I see wind shear... land interaction with the Yucatan peninsula... and the possibility of multiple competing centers in the broad low pressure system as negatives. The 48-hour forecast point located in the southeastern Bay of Campeche has odds lowered from 10% to 0% in this update as the amount of wind shear and outflow suppression induced by the upper vorticity in the 12Z GFS remains prohibitive for cyclone development at that location. Higher development odds may be possible in future updates... for example once this system moves beyond the Yucatan peninsula and consolidates a dominant center located away from the zone of high wind shear... or the long-range wind shear outlook changes in future updates. Regardless of tropical cyclone development or not... will be watching for the formation of prolonged rainfall across southeastern Mexico... Belize... western Central America... and western Cuba in the days ahead.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 31)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Oaxaca/Veracruz border near 17.5N-94.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N-92W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 2)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Yucatan peninsula near 20N-90.2W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 3)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeast coast of Yucatan peninsula near 20.5N-87.2W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 4)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Isle of Youth of western Cuba near 21.5N-82.8W)
AREA OF INTEREST 5... The eastern divergence zone of upper vorticity over Florida has produced a surface trough of low pressure and associated comma shaped cloud mass offshore... with a portion of the cloud mass covering the western Bahamas. Over the next few days... the best window for tropical cyclone development in association with this system appears to be on days 2 and 3 once the cold core upper vorticity and associated shear weakens while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. Due to to the improved organization of this disturbance as seen by the comma-shaped nature of the cloud mass... I have increased peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20%. These odds however remain on the low side as the GFS remains the only model that shows development... and wind shear may remain elevated at days 3 and 4 as upper westerly flow increases with the eventual approach of the major upper trough currently over the western United States. By day 4 the westerly flow ahead of the upper trough will have carried this system east-northeast into water temps below 26 deg C... and so I drop development odds to 0%
Regarding impact to land areas... increased rainfall may occurr over the western Bahamas over the next 24 hours regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 31)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 28N-77W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 1)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 29N-75.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 2)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 29N-74.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 3)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (west-southwest of Bermuda near 30N-68.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #4... eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha makes landfall in Mexico over southwestern Oaxaca province at 24 hours... at 78 hours a broad low pressure area containing the remnants of Agatha becomes defined inland over Guatemala... broad low pressure lifts northeast to the west edge of the Caribbean through 102 hours and passes just northwest of Cuba’s west tip through 114 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested just west of the Florida Keys at 120 hours with landfall over the southern Florida peninsula at 132 hours
**For area of interest #5... no development shown
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #4... eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha makes landfall in Mexico over southwestern Oaxaca province just after 24 hours... at 78 hours a broad low pressure area containing the remnants of Agatha becomes defined inland over the northern Guatemala/Mexico border... through 96 hours lifts north across the Yucatan peninsula and becomes a tropical cyclone just offshore of the northeast Yucatan at 120 hours
**For area of interest #5... no development shown
1200Z GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #4... through the next 15 hours Hurricane Agatha drifts northeast along the southwest coast of Oaxaca while gradually weakening to a remnant low... through 54 hours a broad low pressure area containing the remnants of Agatha becomes elongated NW-SE spanning from the Bay of Campeche to western Central America... through 102 hours the broad low pressure lifts northeast into the western Caribbean while featuring multiple centers... through 117 hours the broad low pressure coalesces into one center in the western Caribbean and a second center in the Florida Straits (between Cuba and Florida)... through 132 hours the center in the Florida Straits moves northeast into the western Bahamas while becoming a tropical cyclone
**For area of interest #5... Current surface trough just offshore of SE Florida and supporting upper vorticity move east-northeast... surface trough arrives to 27.5N-72.5W by 78 hours and evolves to a compact surface low near 30N-67.5W at 93 hours... compact surface low strengthens over Bermuda by 102 hours in high shear environment with water temps below 26 deg C indicating support is non-tropical and from the upper vorticity... surface low located at 32.5N-60W at 120 hours
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run...
** For area of interest #4... eastern Pacific Hurricane Agatha makes landfall in Mexico over southwestern Oaxaca province at 24 hours... at 48 hours a broad low pressure area containing the remnants of Agatha becomes defined inland over northern Guatemala... at 78 hours the west side of the broad low pressure becomes a tropical cyclone just offshore of the Yucatan peninsula west coast... tropical cyclone tracks east through 126 hours just inland of the north coast of the peninsula
**For area of interest #5... Current surface trough just offshore of SE Florida and supporting upper vorticity move east-northeast and passes just south of Bermuda at 120 hours.
Comments