*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 22 2022 5:40 PM EDT...
Although an upper ridge providing low shear and upper outflow remains parked over the Caribbean... there are currently no surface systems forecast to pass below the upper ridge to agitate the weather needed for tropical development.
I plan this to be my final daily birdseye view post on the Atlantic tropics for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season as there are no foreseeable future tropical or subtropical developments... and the official end of the hurricane season (November 30) is approaching. Will resume daily birdseye view posts on the Atlantic tropics at the start of the next hurricane season on June 1 2023... or unless the potential for subtropical or tropical development returns to the Atlantic basin before then.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 22) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 22) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 22) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 22) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)