*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 21 2022 8:09 AM EDT...
Wind shear over the Caribbean remains low... with an increased upper outflow environment... as an upper ridge remains parked over the region. Therefore this will be the region supportive for Atlantic tropical development for the remainder of the hurricane season which will be officially ending November 30:
(1) For the next four days... the cut-off upper trough over the southern US is positioned further north than previous forecasts... therefore the likelihood of this upper trough driving the tail end of a cold front into the central Caribbean has decreased... espeically as the current Gulf of Mexico frontal low has recently lost its cold front that was previously moving across the Yucatan and toward the Caribbean. In addition the central Atlantic upper vorticity approaching the Caribbean from the east is not forecast to move as far west as previously forecast... reducing the potential for split flow upper divergence over the central Caribbean at the boundary between the west side of the upper vorticity and east side of the Caribbean upper ridge. Altogether... the reduced potential for a cold front pushing toward the central Caribbean and reduced potential for split flow upper divergence indicates lower potential for central Caribbean tropical development over the next four days... the CMC model has also dropped showing central Caribbean tropical development for this timeframe.
(2) The next potential for a surface frontal boundary pushing toward the Caribbean will come in approximately seven days when current northeastern Pacific upper trough energy (just to the south of Alaska) slides across the United States as an amplified feature... eventually generating a potentially vigorous frontal system over eastern North America. The further south this frontal system develops... the more likely it could drive the tail end of its cold front toward the Caribbean.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Nov 21) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Nov 21) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Nov 21) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Nov 21) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)