*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 19 2022 9:24 PM EDT...
Wind shear over the Caribbean remains low... with an increased upper outflow environment... as an upper ridge remains parked over the region. Two tropical disturbances are expected in this environment over the course of the next week:
(1) For the short-term... the southern Caribbean tropical low offshore of Panama has seen an increase in thunderstorm activity. However the tropical low is expected to soon make landfall over Costa Rica or southern Nicaragua while pushed by the current central United States surface ridge and therefore tropical cyclone formation of this feature appears unlikely due to short time over water.
(2) Over the next few days... the southwest portion of the current North American upper trough is forecast to become cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies by the current northeast Pacific/western Canada blocking upper ridge. Eventually the cut-off upper trough is forecast to shift across the Gulf of Mexico and drive the tail end of the current northwestern Caribbean to western Gulf of Mexico surface low pressure system (consisting of a surface trough tied to a developing western Gulf of Mexico frontal low) deeper into the central Caribbean Sea. In addition to the arrival of the surface low pressure system from northwest... the current central Atlantic upper vorticity is forecast to approach the central Caribbean from the east while retrograding around the current Caribbean-to-Atlantic upper ridge... with possible split flow upper divergence between the upper vorticity and upper ridge further supporting low surface pressures in the central Caribbean. Models are currently in general agreement in forecasting a sprawling area of central Caribbean surface low pressure in the 5 to 7 day window (with the CMC model now forecasting tropical cyclone formation)... this area therefore may require monitoring for tropical development around that time.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 19) CMC Model Run...
**Broad tropical low becomes defined in the central Caribbean Sea near 12N-79W at 120 hours... while drifting west-northwest tropical cyclone formation suggested near 15N-81.2W at 168 hours
1200Z (Nov 19) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 19) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 19) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)