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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 17 2022 11:59 AM EDT...

Wind shear over the southern Caribbean remains low... with an increased upper outflow environment... as an upper ridge remains parked over the region. A cold front from the Gulf of Mexico is now making its way to the Caribbean Sea from the northwest... however thunderstorm activity and low surface pressures have already developed in the southern Caribbean and just offshore of Panama due to the persistent upper outflow. On some recent runs the GFS model is back to showing the development of a well-defined southern Caribbean tropical low... and given the above observations of renewed activity offshore of Panama this appears possible even without the aid of the aforementioned cold front. Therefore will continue to monitor the southern Caribbean for signs of tropical development in the days ahead. It remains quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.


Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (

0000Z (Nov 17) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

0000Z (Nov 17) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

0600Z (Nov 17) GFS Model Run...

**Tropical low becomes defined just east-northeast of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border at 78 hours... tropical low makes landfall over southern Nicaragua at 90 hours and dissipates over land at 96 hours.

0000Z (Nov 17) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Current central Atlantic upper vorticity weakens (from ongoing isolation from high-latitude cold air) which causes eastern Atlantic tropical upper ridge to expand over next 24 hours... outflow of expading upper ridge results in formation of tropical low near 9.5N-36W at 30 hours... tropical low weakens to a surface trough near 9N-43W at 72 hours

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