*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 16 2022 3:05 AM EDT...
Wind shear in the Caribbean is decreasing as an upper ridge shifts into the region in between the current central US and and northwestern Atlantic upper troughs. At the surface... the tropical low that was over Costa Rica has shifted into the eastern Pacific while the tail end of the cold front that was over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico did not kick up thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean and has moved on to the central Atlantic. However the next cold front that has recently arrived into the Gulf of Mexico has potential to be driven toward the Caribbean by the current central US upper trough and an additional upper trough to dive south from western Canada. Will watch to see if this front increases disturbed weather in the low shear environment of the Caribbean... however also noting the GFS model which previously suggested Caribbean tropical development has backed off in showing this solution.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 15) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 15) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z (Nov 15) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 15) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)