*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 14 2022 5:21 AM EDT...
Over the next few days... conditions for tropical development in the central and eastern Atlantic are expected to remain hostile due to westerly shear being induced by upper vorticity currently in the region. Meanwhile an upper ridge currently over southern Mexico is expected to shift into the Caribbean Sea in between the current eastern and western United States upper troughs... resulting in a decrease in wind shear across the Caribbean. At the surface... these pair of upper troughs in addition to a third one to dive south from western Canada will push the tail ends of the current southwestern US and southeastern Gulf of Mexico cold fronts into the Caribbean... merging with the current surface tropical low pressure area over Panama. The combination of the low shear/outflow of the upper ridge and thunderstorm activity induced by the surface features may result in the development of a southern Caribbean tropical disturbance between Colombia and Central America over the course of the next week.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Nov 14) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Nov 14) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Nov 14) GFS Model Run...
**Tropical low over Panama and tail end of current Gulf of Mexico cold front (driven by current eastern US upper trough) merge over the southern Caribbean Sea near 11N-78.5W through 36 hours... through 120 hours the current western US upper trough and additional upper trough to dive south from western Canada drive tail end of current southwestern US cold front toward southern Caribbean Sea... tropical low forms in the southern Caribbean Sea near 10.5N-81W at 153 hours... compact tropical depression suggested just east of southern Nicaragua (near 12.2N-82.3W) at 168 hours.
0000Z (Nov 14) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Current southwestern Mexico upper ridge shifts east toward Caribbean Sea through 36 hours in between current eastern and western US upper troughs... upper trough from western US generates generates frontal cyclone that moves northeastward across the coastal northeastern US and Atlantic Canada from 54 to 96 hours whose warm sector amplifies the Caribbean upper ridging across the Atlantic... Atlantic upper ridging causes current eastern Atlantic upper vorticity to coalesce into an upper vortex northeast of the Lesser Antilles by 102 hours... eastern divergence zone of upper vortex generates a surface trough near 12.5N-57.5W at 114 hours... surface trough strengthens to a northeastern Caribbean subtropical low centered just souhtwest of the northern Lesser Antilles through 156 hours... subtropical low centered just southeast of Puerto Rico at 168 hours.
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