*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 13 2022 5:32 AM EDT...
Over the next few days... conditions for tropical development in the central and eastern Atlantic are expected to remain hostile due to westerly shear to be induced by upper vorticity currently settling into the region. Meanwhile an upper ridge currently over southwestern Mexico is expected to shift into the Caribbean Sea in between the current central and western United States upper troughs... resulting in a decrease in wind shear across the Caribbean. At the surface... these pair of upper troughs in addition to a third one to dive south from western Canada will push the tail ends of the current southern California and Gulf of Mexico cold fronts into the Caribbean... merging with the current surface tropical low pressure area over northern Colombia. The combination of the low shear/outflow of the upper ridge and thunderstorm activity induced by the surface features may result in the development of a southern Caribbean tropical disturbance between Colombia and Central America over the course of the next week.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Nov 13) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Nov 12) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Nov 13) GFS Model Run...
**Tropical low over northern Colombia and tail end of current Gulf of Mexico cold front (driven by current central US upper trough) merge over the southern Caribbean Sea near 11.5N-75W through 54 hours... through 144 hours the current western US upper trough and additional upper trough to dive south from western Canada drive tail end of current southern California cold front toward southern Caribbean Sea... tropical low forms in the southern Caribbean Sea near 10.5N-79.5W at 150 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 11.5N-80.5W at 168 hours.
0000Z (Nov 13) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Current southwestern Mexico upper ridge shifts east toward Caribbean Sea through 54 hours in between current central and western US upper troughs... upper trough from western US generates generates frontal cyclone that moves northeastward across the coastal northeastern US and Atlantic Canada from 72 to 120 hours whose warm sector amplifies the Caribbean upper ridging across the Atlantic... Atlantic upper ridging causes current eastern Atlantic upper vorticity to coalesce into an upper vortex northeast of the Lesser Antilles by 126+ hours... eastern divergence zone of upper vortex generates a surface trough near 13.5N-52W at 126 hours... surface trough strengthens to a tropical low near 13.5N-52.5W at 138 hours... tropical low moves west-northwest to 16.5N-56W through 168 hours.