*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 12 2022 12:35 AM EDT...
Tropical Depression Nicole has transitioned into a strengthening remnant frontal low over the eastern United States... and as such is expected to bring gusty winds and coastal surf across the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada within the next 24 hours. See Remnants of Nicole section below for additional information.
Elsewhere... the tropical wave of low pressure moving westward along the north coast of Venezuela has become less organized and its potential to later develop in the southern Caribbean is reducing... see area of interest #47 section below for more information. In addition and as forecast... an upper trough has become cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies by the current Atlantic deep-layer ridge and at a location southeast of Bermuda. The eastern divergence zone of the upper trough has developed a surface trough of low pressure with maximum spin near 25N-61W. The surface trough feature is expected to turn northwestward and the northward toward Bermuda in the next 48 hours while rounding the west side of the deep-layer ridge... on this track and in the next 24 hours it will be exposed to northwesterly shear and upper convergence on the west side of cut-off upper trough and by 48 hours move into water temps below 26 deg C in the vicnity of Bermuda. Therefore tropical development of the surface trough is not anticipated
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #47 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
REMNANTS OF NICOLE... Tropical Depression Nicole is accelerating northward across the eastern United States in strong southerly flow ahead of an incoming amplified central US upper trough and vigorous Great Lakes surface frontal low induced by the divergence zone of the upper trough. The broad divergence zone of the upper trough has also transitioned Nicole into a remnant non-tropical frontal low. Over the next 24 hours Nicole's remnant low is expected to align with the upper divergence maximum of the upper trough and strengthen to a frontal cyclone moving quickly northeast across the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Subsequently Nicole's remnant cyclone is expected to turn rapidly east out to sea and into the strong cyclonic flow associated with the current northeast Atlantic frontal cyclone. Depending on the exact track Nicole's remnant cyclone takes within the larger-scale cyclonic flow... it could pass near enough the British Isles and Iceland to also bring wind/coastal surf impacts there in approximately 3 days.
Nicole's rapid northward motion is helping to accelerate winds on its east side while reducing wind on its west side. As such the re-strengthening remnant low of Nicole has redeveloped an area of gusty winds on its east side that has already overspread eastern and central parts of Virginia and North Carolina (see sample list of wind reports below). From here a strengthening area of gusty winds is expected to quickly shift northeastward across central and eastern Maryland... Delaware... New Jersey... eastern Pennsylvania... eastern New York... Massachusetts... Connecticut... Rhode Island... Vermont... New Hamsphire... Maine... New Brunswick... Nova Scotia... Prince Edward Island... southeastern Quebec... and Newfoundland within the next 24 hours. The wind has potential to produce isolated power outages and damage as well as coastal surf. The potential for flooding rains in this region is low as Nicole is expected to be accelerating rapidly across the region... reducing the amount of rainfall time. This is my final statement on Nicole on this blog as it is no longer a tropical system... statements regarding impacts from Nicole's remnants will be carried within a special update post to follow within the next 24 hours as well as the home page bulletins of this site.
The following are peak reports of wind at National Weather Service stations across North Carolina and Virginia and generated by Nicole so far listed in mph. Due to the number of wind reports... called out the region of the state for each location (northeast... southeast... etc.):
**Wilmington (southeastern NC)... sustained 24... gust 39... 8:53 PM EDT Friday
**Fayetteville (southeastern NC)... sustained 21... gust 32... 4:53 PM EDT Friday
**Hatteras (eastern NC)... sustained 22... gust 33... 12:51 PM EDT Friday
**Greenville (eastern NC)... sustained 23... gust 29... 1:15 PM EDT Friday
**Greenville (eastern NC)... sustained 15... gust 29... now
**Corolla (northeastern NC)... sustained 14... gust 25... now
**Roxboro (northeastern NC)... sustained 31... gust 39... 6:55 PM EDT Friday
**Raleigh (central NC)... sustained 23... gust 35... 6:51 PM EDT Friday
**Greensboro (north-central NC)... sustained 24... gust 32... 3:54 PM EDT Friday
**Charlotte (south-central NC)... sustained 24... gust 32... 9:52 AM EDT Friday
**Farmville (south-central VA)... sustained 26... gust 37... 8:15 PM EDT Friday
**Virginia Beach (southeastern VA)... sustained 15... gust 25... now
**Richmond (central VA)... sustained 17... gust 33... now
**Charlottesville (central VA)... sustained 21... gust 31... 8:53 PM EDT Friday
AREA OF INTEREST #47...The spin of the tropical wave of low pressure that continues to move westward across the north coast of Venezuela has become less defined as this system has not done well with land interaction. The tropical wave will also have to fight a dose of wind shear as the upper vorticity currently in the Gulf of Mexico gets pushed eastward toward this tropical wave by the amplified upper trough to approach from its current central US position. Therefore even though the wave may later encounter a lower shear environment in the southern Caribbean once the upper vorticity then continues eastward and away... it may become too disorganized due to the short-term land interaction and wind shear to later take advantage of the longer term lower shear environment. Computer models also agree with this idea while continuing to not forecast tropical cyclone formation... and this is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Nov 13)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwest coast of Venezuela near 11.2N-71.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 11) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
1200Z (Nov 11) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
1800Z (Nov 11) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
1800Z (Nov 11) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #47... no development shown