MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #153
*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 10 2022 3:58 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics remain active as Hurricane Nicole is making landfall in southeastern Florida after directly striking the northwestern Bahamas. Impacts from the storm are also expected to later shift northward across the entire eastern US seaboard and into Atlantic Canada once Nicole transitions into a remnant frontal cyclone... see Nicole section below for more information on the storm.
Elswhere... noting the following other areas of interest:
(1) A tropical wave of low pressure from the central Atlantic is currently crossing the southern Lesser Antilles... northeastern Venezuela... and Trinidad and Tobago. The wave has potential to develop while moving across the southern Caribbean Sea and toward Central America over the next few days while encountering periods of low wind shear. See area of interest #47 section below for more information.
(2) Models generally agree that the current deep-layer ridge passing north of Hurricane Nicole and heading into the Atlantic will be strong enough to cut-off portions of the current north Atlanitc upper trough. The western cut-off upper trough is expected to setup southeast of Bermuda and the eastern cut-off upper trough is expected to setup in the eastern subtropical Atlantic to the west of the Canary Islands. Each cut-off upper trough has potential to be amplified enough to produce high upper divergence and low wind shear on its east side... an environment conducive for the development of yet another pair of surface subtropical disturbances. As such... an additional area of interest or two may be required to the southeast of Bermuda and/or west of the Canary Islands in future updates.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #47 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
HURRICANE NICOLE... As expected Nicole has continued westward across the northwestern Bahamas and into the southeast Florida coast while steered in the flow between a deep-layer ridge to the north and a string of upper vorticity over/south of the storm. While redeveloping a core of thunderstorms on Wednesday morning and maintaining it through the afternoon... Nicole was able to acquire minimal category 1 hurricane strength by 6 PM EDT as the center of circulation moved across the northwestern Bahamas. Meanwhile the southwestern convergence zone of the upper vorticity string has maintained a dry air slot just south of Nicole... therefore as the center of circulation now moves into southeastern Florida (between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral) the core of thunderstorms has broken up while again ingesting this dry air and therefore the hurricane has not strengthened further.
Regarding the forecast track... Nicole is a touch northeast of the previous and therefore my updated track is adjsuted accordingly. As the deep-layer ridge north of the storm shifts eastward over the next 24 hours... Nicole is expected to round the southwest side of the ridge and hence move northwestward across Florida. Given the small northeast adjustment in the forecast track... there is a smaller chance that the center of circulation reaches the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico. After 24 hours... the amplified upper trough/surface frontal system approaching from its current western US position vaults Nicole northward across the eastern United States from Florida. Regarding forecast intensity... I have slightly lowered the intensity for the 24-hour forecast point due to the reduced chances for Nicole's center to reach the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico and also due to Nicole's current intensity being a touch lower than my previous forecast. After 24 hours... Nicole is expected to lose tropical characteristics but also maintain strength while transitioning into a frontal cyclone supported by the strong eastern divergence zone of the amplified upper trough to approach from the western US it will be interacting with. Previous model runs had disagreement on whether or not Nicole's remnant frontal cyclone will become the dominant... or if the divergence maximum of the upper trough sets up a little further north to produce a frontal cyclone just north of Nicole such that Nicole's remnant cyclone loses identity within the dominating northern one. More recent model runs have now trended with Nicole's remnants becoming the dominant frontal cyclone... realistically regardless of which long range scenario plays out the wind/coastal surf impacts that have spread into the northwestern Bahamas and Florida will eventually shift northward across the entire eastern US seaboard (from Georgia to Maine) and then eventually Atlantic Canada.
Regarding impact to land areas... Nicole was born within a large subtropical surface circulation caused by the large upper divergence zone of its earlier parent upper vortex. As such the large outer circulation has teamed up with tropical core of Nicole to produce stronger coastal surf over a wider area than typically seen with a category 1 hurricane. Below is an updated regional breakdown of coastal surf and other impacts:
(1) For the northwestern Bahamas... a coastal storm surge and tropical storm to hurricane force winds have struck the islands for much of Wednesday. Weather conditions will gradually improve today as Nicole's circulation edges away with time.
(2) For Florida... a coastal storm surge is likely underway for the southeast and east-central coast (vicinity of Miami to Cape Canaveral) with coastal surf still occuring on the northeast coast of Florida. Coastal surf will also increase on the state's western coastlines throughout today... including the Keys and Panhandle. Stronger tropical storm to hurricane force winds are occurring across the southern and central parts of the peninsula... and will later reach the eastern Florida panhandle by tonight... where instances of wind damage and power outages are likely. More isolated wind damage and power outages cannot be ruled out for the Florida Keys... northern third of the peninsula... and western Florida penhandle. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will be another hazard to consider across the peninsula and panhandle. Preparations for stronger winds and coastal surf to reach the eastern Panhandle should be finished later this morning. The following are wind reports at National Weather Service stations over the last several hours across Florida listed in mph. Due to the number of wind reports... called out the region of the state for each location (northeast... southeast... etc.):
**Port Saint Lucie (southeast FL)... sustained 25... gust 43... 1:15 AM EDT
**Port Saint Lucie (southeast FL)... sustained 22... gust 40... now
**West Palm Beach (southeast FL)... sustained 25... gust 35... now
**West Palm Beach (southeast FL)... sustained 31... gust 40... 12:53 AM EDT
**Miami (southeast FL)... sustained 14... gust 30... 12:53 AM EDT
**Marathon (FL Keys)... sustained 16... gust 32... 9:53 PM EDT Wednesday
**Port Charlotte (southwest FL)... sustained 20... gust 28... 5:53 PM EDT Wednesday
**Melbourne (east-central FL)... sustained 52... gust 64... now
**Orlando (central FL)... sustained 30... gust 41... now
**Lakeland (central FL)... sustained 20... gust 29... now
**Tampa (west-central FL)... sustained 21... gust 31... now
**Gainsville (north-central FL)... sustained 18... gust 29... now
**Jacksonville (northeast FL)... sustained 30... gust 40... now
(3) For southeastern Alabama... southern and central Georgia... all of South Carolina... central and eastern North Carolina... Nicole and is remnant frontal cyclone will be capable of producing gusty winds with isolated occurrences of damage and power outages by Thursday evening and into Friday... sooner at further south location and later at further north locations. More widespread wind damage and power outages in southwestern Georgia are possible late tonight. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will be another hazard to consider. Coastal surf and gusty winds have also already arrived on the Atlantic coast of these areas due to the large outer circulation around Nicole... and will be lasting through Friday. The following are wind reports at National Weather Service stations over the last several hours across Georgia and the Carolinas. Due to the number of wind reports... called out the region of the state for each location (northeast... southeast... etc.):
**Brunswick (southeast GA)... sustained 29... gust 46... now
**Savannah (southeast GA)... sustained 12... gust 23... now
**Charleston (southern SC)... sustained 21... gust 28... 1:56 AM EDT
(4) For central and eastern Virginia... eastern West Virignia... central and eastern Maryland... Delaware... eastern Pennsylvania... New Jersey... eastern New York... Connecticut... Rhode Island... Massachusetts... Vermont... New Hampshire... Maine... New Brunswick... Nova Scotia... Prince Edward Island... southeastern Quebec... and Newfoundland... Nicole's remnant frontal cyclone (or a northern frontal cyclone that quickly forms and absorbs Nicole's remnant cyclone) ie exepcted to bring coastal surf and gusty winds with isolated damage potential by Saturday.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Nov 10)... 75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just offshore of the southeast Florida coast at 27.2N-79.0W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 11)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the Florida panhandle coast and just east of the Big Bend at 30N-84W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 12)... Remnant frontal cyclone centered just east of the northern Virginia/West Virginia border at 38N-78W
AREA OF INTEREST #47...The tropical wave of low pressure that has been approaching Trinidad and Tobago as well as the southern Lesser Antilles is now crossing the islands and heading into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. The wave remains defined with outer curved cloud bands and a thunderstorm cluster just offshore of northeastern Venezuela and just east of Trinidad and Tobago while continuing to take advantage of the outflow of an upper ridge cell in the region. Therefore I continue to monitor the tropical wave as an area of interest for tropical development. This system is expected to continue westward across the southern Caribbean Sea at varying speeds over the next five days. The forward speed is expected to be sluggish over the next four days while encountering an area of weaker easterly surface trade winds caused by the surface ridge weakness of Nicole and a potential additional subtropical disturbance to form southeast of Bermuda in the days ahead (see intro section of this blog post for more info on the potential disturbance). Due to the lack of progress toward development... I have knocked short-term odds of development down to 0% over the next 48 hours as the tropical wave encounters northwesterly wind shear to be caused by the southwest side of the upper vorticity of the possible subtropical disturbance southeast of Bermuda. After escaping this shear... I then raise development odds to a low 10% as computer model support showing development remains absent and a second dose of shear is expected around day 4 as some of the upper vorticity lingering in Nicole's environment gets pushed eastward toward this tropical wave by the amplified upper trough to approach from its current western US position. Note that after this upper vorticity moves away... there is potential for this tropical wave to encounter more favorable low shear to the east of Central America in 5+ days. In addition a surface ridge to build over North America in the wake of the aformentioned upper trough and upper vorticity would also accelerate the tropical wave westward toward Central America. Therefore this tropical wave may also require monitoring as it moves toward Central America in the 5+ day window.
Even though short-term tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated with this tropical wave... it has potential to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to northeastern Venezuela... the southern Lesser Antilles... and Trinidad and Tobago over the next 24 hours.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 11)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea near 12N-64.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 12)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just northeast of the ABC Islands near 12.5N-67.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 13)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean Sea near 13N-69W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 14)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean Sea near 13.5N-71.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 15)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean Sea near 13.5N-74.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 9) CMC Model Run...
**For Hurricane Nicole... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 6 hours... makes landfall on east Florida coast just northeast of Lake Okeechobee at 18 hours... center reaches the northwest coast of the Florida peninsula at 30 hours... center moves into southwestern Georgia by 42 hours and transitions into a remnant frontal low centered over the North Carolina/Tennessee border at 54 hours... remnant low subsequently strengthens to a broad frontal cyclone over the northeastern US by 72 hours which swings east into Atlantic Canada by 84 hours and rapidly accelerates east into the northeast Atlantic near 49.5N-21W by 120 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
1200Z (Nov 9) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Hurricane Nicole... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 12 hours... makes landfall on east Florida coast just northeast of Lake Okeechobee at 18 hours... center reaches the northwest coast of the Florida peninsula at 30 hours... center moves into southwestern Georgia by 42 hours and transitions into a remnant frontal low centered just east of the North Carolina/Tennessee border at 54 hours... remnant low subsequently strengthens to a broad frontal cyclone over the northeastern US by 66 hours which swings east into Atlantic Canada by 84 hours and rapidly accelerates east into the northeast Atlantic near 49N-22W by 120 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 10) GFS Model Run...
**For Hurricane Nicole... makes landfall on east Florida coast just northeast of Lake Okeechobee at 6 hours... center reaches the northwest coast of the Florida peninsula at 15 hours after which time it moves offshore into the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico... after turning north center makes landfall at Big Bend region of Florida panhandle at 21 hours... center moves into the Alabama/Georgia/Florida border at 30 hours and transitions to a remnant frontal low centered over the North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia border at 42 hours... remnant low subsequently strengthens to a broad frontal cyclone over the northeastern US by 63 hours which swings east into Atlantic Canada by 75 hours... through 90 hours the frontal cyclone begins to weaken over Atlantic Canada while a rapidly forming frontal cyclone forms just to the east and accelerates eastward and away... the weakened remnant frontal low of Nicole then drifts east into the northwest Atlantic near 51N-45W through 120 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 10) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Not available at above mentioned source