MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #152
*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 9 2022 6:38 AM EDT...
Even after completing the first eight days of November... the Atlantic tropics remain exceptionally and unusually active for November due to multiple areas of interest as follows:
(1) See Nicole section below for more information on the current western Atlantic tropical storm now bearing down on the northwestern Bahamas and Florida peninsula. Impacts from the storm are also expected to later shift northward across the entire eastern US seaboard and into Atlantic Canada once Nicole transitions into a remnant frontal cyclone.
(2) See area of interest #45 section below for an update on the open Atlantic surface low pressure area still being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for signs of tropical cyclone formation.
(3) A tropical wave of low pressure in the central Atlantic has potential to develop over the next five days while heading across the southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... northeastern Venezuela... and the southern Caribbean Sea. See area of interest #47 section below for more information.
(4) Models have come into increasing agreement that the current eastern Canada deep-layer ridge... to later spread into the Atlantic... will be strong enough to cut-off portions of the current northwest Atlanitc upper trough. The western cut-off upper trough is expected to setup southeast of Bermuda and the eastern cut-off upper torugh is expected to setup in the eastern subtropical Atlantic to the west of the Canary Islands. Each cut-off upper trough has potential to be amplified enough to produce high upper divergence and low wind shear on its east side... an environment conducive for the development of yet another pair of surface subtropical disturbances. As such... an additional area of interest or two may be required to the southeast of Bermuda and/or west of the Canary Islands in future updates.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #45 and #47 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE... To the left is infrared satellite imagery showing Tropical Storm Nicole strengthening on the afternoon of Tuesday November 8 and just prior to dry air becoming ingested into the core of the circulation... to the right is infrared satellite imagery showing the more disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity after the ingestion of dry air on early Wednesday November 9 morning:
A series of upper vortices near Nicole's environment have merged into a west-northwest to east-southeast tilted string of upper vorticity over/south of the storm. Meanwhile a warm deep-layer ridge over eastern Canada has become established to the north of the storm... with Nicole being propelled westward toward the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida peninsula in the flow between the upper vorticity and deep-layer ridge. The strength of the ridge is also adding a southward tilt to Nicole's westward track. For much of Tuesday Nicole's thunderstorm core produced cirrus warm core outflow clouds streaming northward into the anticyclonic upper layer of the deep-layer ridge... indicating the storm has transitioned to fully tropical. As of 10 AM EDT Tuesday Nicole was upgraded to fully tropical... with the tropical storm also proceeding to strengthen ahead of schedule to 70 mph maximum sustained winds by Tuesday evening. Noting to the south of Nicole a slot of dry air has become established by the southwestern convergence zone of the upper vorticity string... with the dry air becoming ingested into the circulation just after 1800Z Tuesday as shown in the above satellite imagery. As a result Nicole has stopped strengthening... maintaining 70 mph maximum sustained winds through the recent 4 AM EDT NHC advisory perhaps as the northeastern divergence zone of the upper vorticity string and also the large-scale anticyclonic outflow of the deep-layer ridge are enough to maintain the storm despite the less organized and reduced thunderstorm activity at Nicole's core.
Regarding the forecast track... there are some small changes as follows: In the short-term the tropical storm is expected to move a little faster and also further to the west due to the strength of the deep-layer ridge... with the models at this point agreeing that landfall on the Florida peninsula will occur further south also due to the strength of the ridge. In the longer range the models also agree that the amplified upper trough/surface frontal system approaching from its current western US position will approach sooner... with the strong southerly flow on the east side of this system overspreading Nicole sooner and therefore resulting in a sooner northward acceleration of Nicole across the eastern United States from Florida. The updated forecast track below reflects these changes. Regarding forecast intensity... the string of cool core upper vorticity and associated dry air slot in Nicole's environment (discussed in the previous paragraph) is expected to continue weakening due to its prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... therefore over the next 24 hours Nicole has potential to redevelop thunderstorm activity at its core while taking advantage of water temps above 26 deg C and the anticyclonic outflow/low shear environment of the deep-layer ridge to the north... thus I still call for Nicole to potentially move into southeast Florida as a category 1 hurricane strengthening toward a mid-range category 1. Despite Nicole being a little ahead of schedule relative to the previous intensity forecast... I have not raised my forecast peak intensity to acknowledge the earlier dry air ingestion event that Nicole is still recovering from. However I did slightly raise the intensity for the 48-hour forecast point as Nicole potentially spends less time over the Florida peninsula and reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico waters in lieu of the updated faster and more westward short-term forecast track. After 48 hours... Nicole is expected to lose tropical characteristics but also maintain strength while transitioning into a frontal cyclone supported by the strong eastern divergence zone of the amplified upper trough to approach from the western US it will be interacting with. There is some disagreement in the models on whether or not Nicole's remnant frontal cyclone will become the dominant... or if the divergence maximum of the upper trough sets up a little further north to produce a frontal cyclone just north of Nicole such that Nicole's remnant cyclone loses identity within the dominating northern one. Either way... the wind/coastal surf impacts that will be spreading into the northwestern Bahamas and Florida will eventually shift northward across the entire eastern US seaboard (from Georgia to Maine) and then eventually Atlantic Canada.
Regarding impact to land areas... Nicole was born within a large subtropical surface circulation caused by the large upper divergence zone of its earlier parent upper vortex. As such the large outer circulation will team up with tropical core of Nicole to produce stronger coastal surf over a wider area than typically seen with a category 1 hurricane. Also note the updated forecast track brings Nicole into land areas further west than previously shown... and into land areas sooner. Below is an updated regional breakdown of expected surf and other impacts:
(1) For the northwestern Bahamas... coastal surf is expected to increase to a storm surge later today as the core of Nicole is already upon the islands. Preparations for gusty and potentially damaging winds and coastal storm surge should have been completed by now.
(2) For Florida... coastal surf is currently occurring on the east coast and is expected to escalate to a storm surge for the southeast and east-central coast (vicinity of Miami to Cape Canaveral) by tonight once Nicole's stronger core arrives. Coastal surf will also increase on the state's western coastlines by Thursday... including the Keys and Panhandle... as the western part of Nicole's large circulation reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Stronger tropical storm to hurricane force winds and gusts are expected to spread across the southern and central parts of the peninsula by tonight and into early Thursday... and also on the updated forecast track the eastern Florida panhandle by Thursday evening... where instances of wind damage and power outages are likely. More isolated wind damage and power outages cannot be ruled out for the Florida Keys... northern third of the peninsula... and western Florida panhandle. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will be another hazard to consider across the peninsula and panhandle. I recommend preparations for the above described wind and coastal surf across the peninsula and Keys continue and finish by no later than this afternoon given the updated faster forecast track. The eastern panhandle has a little more time to prepare and should finish preparing by tonight.
(3) For southeastern Alabama... southern and central Georgia... all of South Carolina... central and eastern North Carolina... Nicole and is remnant frontal cyclone will be capable of producing gusty winds with isolated occurrences of damage and power outages by Thursday evening and into Friday... sooner at further south location and later at further north locations. Due to the updated more western forecast track which allows for Nicole to hold on to some strength while sliding over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico... there is now increased risk for more widespread wind damage and power outages in southwestern Georgia on Thursday evening. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will be another hazard to consider. Coastal surf and gusty winds are also now arriving on the Atlantic coast of these areas due to the large outer circulation around Nicole... and will be lasting through Friday.
(4) For central and eastern Virginia... eastern West Virginia central and eastern Maryland... Delaware... eastern Pennsylvania... New Jersey... eastern New York... Connecticut... Rhode Island... Massachusetts... Vermont... New Hampshire... Maine... New Brunswick... Nova Scotia... Prince Edward Island... southeastern Quebec... and Newfoundland... there is increasing confidence that Nicole's remnant frontal cyclone (or a northern frontal cyclone that quickly forms and absorbs Nicole's remnant cyclone) will bring coastal surf and gusty winds with isolated damage potential by Saturday.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Nov 9)... 70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Atlantic at 26.9N-75.4W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 10)... 80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane making landfall on the southeast coast of the Florida peninsula at 26.5N-80W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 11)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just offshore of the Florida Panhandle Big Bend at 29.7N-84.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 12)... Remnant frontal cyclone centered just east of the Virginia/West Virginia border at 37.5N-79.5W
AREA OF INTEREST #45...The surface low pressure swirl in the open central Atlantic continues accelerating east-northeast in the flow ahead of an upper trough and associated surface frontal cyclone that has entered the northwest Atlantic from eastern Canada. The large-scale upper trough has absorbed the smaller parent upper trough of this system... however the surface low pressure remains supported by broad-scale upper divergence on the east side of the absorbing upper trough. The surface low is located south of previous forecasts... as noted in the previous birdseye view post the incoming upper trough/surface frontal cyclone took a little longer to erode the deep-layer ridge that had been in the region and thus delayed the east-northeast acceleration of the surface low of interest. While having been a little further south due to the delayed ridge erosion... this also lined up the surface low with more westerly flow on the south side of the incoming upper trough/surface frontal cyclone instead of the more southwesterly flow further north... resulting in a more east and less north acceleration of the surface low which is also why it is south of previous forecasts. The further south position of the surface low has allowed it to escape merging with the surface cold front of the incoming frontal cyclone for a little longer which is why it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook as an area of interest... however while traveling over low-20 deg C water there has not been enough instability to fire off thunderstorms espcially as the upper layers of the atmosphere are too warm for instability at such water temps (200 mb heights in the region are above 1200 dekameters). My odds of tropical cyclone formation from this system are set to 0% as this system will soon be absorbed by the aforementioned cold front...and I expect this system to be dropped from the NHC tropical weather outlook later today. This is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 10)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeast Atlanitc near 45N-27W)
AREA OF INTEREST #47...A tropical wave of low pressure in the central Atlantic continues to produce intermittent occurrences of concentrated thunderstorm activity supported by the outflow of an upper ridge cell in the region... and as of late has this concentrated activity east of Trinidad and Tobago near 10.5N-58W. Therefore I continue to monitor it as an area of interest for tropical development. This system is expected to continue west into Trinidad and Tobago... the southern Lesser Antilles... and across the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea at varying speeds over the next five days. The forward speed is expected to pickup over the next 24 hours as regional surface easterly trade winds recover with the approach of a deep-layer ridge currently over eastern Canada... followed by another slow down in the track at 48+ hours once encountering another area of weaker trades associated with the surface ridge weakness created by Nicole and a potential additional subtropical disturbance to form southeast of Bermuda in the days ahead (see intro section of this blog post for more info on the potential disturbance). In this update I have low 10% odds of tropical cyclone formation due to no current model support showing development... a potential increase in westerly vertical shear in the middle of the 5-day forecast period to be caused by the upper vorticity of the possible subtropical disturbance southeast of Bermuda... and a second round of increased westerly shear around day 5 as some of the upper vorticity lingering in Nicole's environment gets pushed eastward toward this tropical wave by the amplified upper trough to approach from its current western US position. Note that after this upper vorticity moves away... there is potential for this tropical wave to encounter more favorable low shear to the east of Central America just after day 5. In addition a surface ridge to build over North America in the wake of the aformentioned upper trough and upper vorticity would also accelerate the tropical wave westward toward Central America. Therefore this tropical wave may also require monitoring as it moves toward Central America in the 5+ day window.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not the southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... and northeastern Venezuela may see heavy rainfall and gusty winds from this tropical wave by tomorrow (Thursday).
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 10)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (between Trinidad and Tobago and southern Lesser Antilles near 11.5N-61.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 11)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea near 12N-64.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 12)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just northeast of the ABC Islands near 12.5N-67.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 13)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean Sea near 13N-69W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 14)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean Sea near 13.5N-71.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Nov 9) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Nicole... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 18 hours... makes landfall on east Florida coast just east of Lake Okeechobee at 30 hours... center reaches the northwest coast of the Florida peninsula at 42 hours... center moves into southwestern Georgia by 60 hours and transitions into a remnant frontal low centered over the northwestern corner of South Carolina at 66 hours... remnant low subsequently strengthens to a broad frontal cyclone over the northeastern US by 84 hours which swings east into Atlantic Canada by 96 hours and rapidly accelerates east into the north Atlantic near 49.5N-29.8W by 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... loses tropical characteristics over next 18 hours while merging with incoming cold front to the northwest and near 39N-36W... loses identity along the front and near 45N-24W at 30 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
**Southeast part of cold front that absorbs area of interest #45 and its associated upper trough becomes cut-off west of the Canary Islands and near 29.8N-24W by 72 hours... compact subtropical cyclone formation suggested near 28.5N-25.5W at 90 hours... subsequently accelerates southwest to 24N-31.5W by 120 hours under influence of deep-layer ridge while also weakening to a remnant low due to upper convergence on southeast side of the ridge.
1200Z (Nov 8) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Nicole... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 30 hours... makes landfall on east Florida coast just east of Lake Okeechobee at 42 hours... center reaches the west Florida peninsula coast just north of Tampa Bay at 54 hours after which time it curves northward along/near the coast... center moves into inland southwestern Georgia at 66 hours and transitions into a remnant frontal low centered over the northeastern corner of Georgia at 78 hours... loses identity along cold front moving through the Carolinas through 90 hours as a new frontal low further north becomes the dominant.
**For area of interest #45... loses tropical characteristics over next 24 hours while merging with incoming cold front to the northwest and near 36.2N-40W... loses identity along the front and near 46.2N-23W at 42 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 9) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Nicole... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 18 hours... makes landfall on east Florida coast just east of Lake Okeechobee at 30 hours... center reaches the west Florida peninsula coast just north of Tampa Bay at 39 hours after which time it moves offshore into the northeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico... after turning north center makes landfall at Big Bend region of Florida panhandle at 51 hours... center moves into inland southwestern Georgia at 60 hours and transitions into a remnant frontal low centered over the northern Georgia/South Carolina border at 69 hours... remnant low subsequently strengthens to a broad frontal cyclone over the northeastern US by 87 hours which swings east into Atlantic Canada by 96 hours... remnant cyclone subsequently elongates east-west into a cold front east of Newfoundland by 111 hours and thus loses its identity.
**For area of interest #45... loses tropical characteristics over next 18 hours while merging with incoming cold front to the northwest and near 39N-36.2W... loses identity along the front and near 43.8N-27.5W at 27 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 9) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Not available at above mentioned source