*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY NOVEMBER 7 2022 5:55 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics remain exceptionally and unusually active for November due to multiple areas of interest as follows:
(1) See area of interest #44 section below for more information on newly-formed Subtropical Storm Nicole in the western Atlantic which is forecast to swing west toward the northwestern Bahamas and Florida peninsula later this week (this system is labeled as an area of interest in the text below and above chart as it was upgraded to Nicole while putting this update together instead of earlier).
(2) See area of interest #45 section below for an update on the open Atlantic surface low pressure area well east of Bermuda still being monitored for signs of tropical cyclone formation.
(3) A tropical wave of low pressure in the open central Atlantic has potential to develop over the next five days while heading toward the southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... northeastern Venezuela... and the southeastern Caribbean Sea. See area of interest #47 section below for more information.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post is designated #44... #45... and #47 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #44 (RECENTLY UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE)... The subtropical surface low that formed near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic 24 hours ago has proceeded to lift northward into the western Atlantic while orbiting around the east side of its parent upper vortex. The surface circulation and its corresponding comma-shaped region of showers and thunderstorms has proceeded to take a north-south elongation in satellite pictures... this elongation is confirmed in the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). The parent upper vortex has become similarly elongated while beginning to absorb the south portion of the parent upper trough associated with area of interest #45... resulting in a stretched rather than focused divergence zone and associated surface pressure falls on the east side of the upper vortex which explains the elongation of the child surface circulation. The current north track of the subtropical surface low is expected to arc westward while steered between the north side of the parent upepr vortex and south side of the current west Atlantic deep-layer ridge. My short-term forecast track is adjusted southward as the surface circulation is not showing signs of consolidating toward the northern upper divergence maximum associated with the upper trough energy that the parent upper vortex is currently absorbing. Meanwhile the 48+ hour part of the forecast track is unchanged as the upper vortex and hence the surface circulation is expected to become more circular around 27.5N latitude once the upper vortex finishes absorbing the adjacent upper trough energy. The westward track is expected to continue through day 3 as another unseasonably warm deep-layer ridge develops over Canada in the warm sector of a vigorous frontal system to develop over the western US. The Canadian ridge is also expected to trap the current southeast US upper trough fragment in the eastern Gulf of Mexico... with this energy potentially merging with the west side of the upper vortex to re-enforce the upper vortex which will all the more help promote the westward track. There is a considerable north-south spread in the model guidance as to where the core of the surface circulation makes landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula as their is disagreement on where the center of circulation consolidates. For example if consolidation occurs in the north side of the current elongated circulation... the remainder southern part would cyclonically swing the consolidated center southwestward for a more southern track. For now my forecast strategy is to assume consolidation will occur at the centroid of this system along 27.5N latitutde. After 72 hours... the vigorous western US frontal system and associated amplified upper trough makes its approach to bend the track of this system north. There is some uncertainty as to when exactly the north turn occurs as this will depend on exactly how fast the upper trough approaches... a slower approach will result in a later north turn along the west coast of the Florida peninsula and into the interior eastern US... a faster approach will result in a sooner north turn along the east coast of the peninsula and along the US east coast. My current long-range forecast strategy continues to split the difference between these two ideas.
Regarding forecast intensity... my updated forecast is nudged downward as the surface circulation has become more elongated rather than consolidated toward the northern upper divergence maximum of the adjacent upper trough energy as mentioned in the previous paragraph. This means more time will be needed for a consolidated circulation and subsequent intensification to begin. Thunderstorms in the circulation are expected to be supported by water temps above 26 deg C... and will also be able to stay stacked vertically in a low shear environment caused by deep-layer cyclonic flow caused by the combo of the surface subtropical circulation and upper vortex... potentially allowing for the formation of a fully tropical core to the subtropical circulation that establishes warm anticyclonic outflow below the upper vortex and supported by the thunderstorm latent heat release. I think the chances of a fully tropical core remain high for this system as it will be left undisturbed to the south of unseasonably warm deep-layer ridges for much of the forecast period such that it will have sufficient time to obtain its fully tropical core. Also by 72 hours the cold core upper vortex will be decaying from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... potentially exposing the surface circulation to warm anticyclonic upper flow associated with the deep-layer ridge that will help make the transition to fully tropical. As a result I still forecast the core of this system to transition into a strengthening hurricane by day 3 despite the slightly lower intensity outlook. The forecast track continues to takes this system into the Florida peninsula... therefore weakening is shown in the forecast by day 4. Despite remaining over land through day 5 I show no additional weakening as this system begins to interact with the strong and supportive eastern divergence zone of the amplified upper trough to approach from the western US... this in the long range could allow this system to produce winds and coastal surf along much of the US east coast as it turns north in track. It should be noted this system will likely be losing tropical characteristics during its interaction with the upper trough... espeically as the cold front of the upper trough overspreads the circulation and transitions it to a remnant but still potentially impactful frontal cyclone.
Regarding impact to land areas:
(1) For the northeastern Caribbean Islands (Dominican Republic to Lesser Antilles)... a surface trough of low pressure is moving northeastward toward the islands from its previous southern Caribbean position while becoming ingested into the circulation of this system (this surface trough was tagged area of interest #46 on this blog a couple of update cycles ago). Will watch to see if the interaction between the surface trough and eastern divergence zone of the upper vortex which would result in an additional round of rainfall within the next couple of days after this system previously produced heavy rains over the islands this past Saturday. Any rainfall that re-develops could result in flash flooding potential over grounds already soaked/saturated by this system.
(2) Due to the large outer circulation of this system... a large area of wind blowing toward shore could produce notable coastal surf for the northwestern Bahamas as well as the southeast US coast from the Carolinas to east coast of Florida by Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds could also spread onshore during this timeframe.
(3) Confidence is increasing that the core of this system could transition into a strengthening hurricane... as a result chances are increasing that more significant wind and coastal storm surge affects the northwestern Bahamas and Florida peninsula by Thursday and Friday. Interests here should be aware of this system... preparations for this system maybe required Tuesday and Wednesday if the current forecast holds (for the Florida peninsula... that means on and after election day).
(4) In the long-range... this system has potential to retain strength while interacting with an incoming upper trough as discussed above. As a result any stronger area of winds and coastal surf that moves into the Florida peninsula has potential to transfer northward across coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas during this upcoming weekend. A further west track long-range could also allow for gusty winds to also occur over inland eastern areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Update as of 4 AM EDT... the National Hurricane Center by analyzing buoy data and satellite scans of surface winds has determined that a consolidated surface circulation has formed near 25.5N-68.5W and as a result has upgraded this area of interest to Subtropical Storm Nicole with 45 mph maximum sustained winds. Based on this current intensity and position... making no changes to my track and intensity forecast outlined below.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Nov 7)... Subtropical surface low centered in the western Atlantic at 24.5N-67.5W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 8)... Subtropical surface low centered in the western Atlantic at 26N-71W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 9)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind subtropical storm centered in the western Atlantic near 27.5N-74.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 10)... 75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just north of the northwestern Bahamas and east of the Florida peninsula at 27.5N-78.5W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 11)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the northwestern Florida peninsula at 29.2N-83W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0600Z Nov 12)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over southeastern Georgia at 31.5N-82.2W
AREA OF INTEREST #45...The surface low pressure swirl in the open central Atlantic continues to be monitored for signs of tropical cyclone formation. This feature has remained stationary over the last 24 hours near 32N-54W while trapped within a notch of low pressure within the current western Atlantic deep-layer ridge being produced by the eastern divergence zone of its parent upper trough. It is hard to spot the low-level cloud swirl associated with this system while it is obscured by the sprawling cirrus outflow deck associated with area of interest #44 overspreading from the southwest... the best nighttime satellite tool to see the swirl is the colorized shortwave infrared loop (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=07&length=24) which does a good job of contrasting the upper-level clouds (red/maroon colors) from the low-level clouds (faint white). Satellite pictures show a lone thunderstorm band sheared eastward from the swirl by the outflow of area of interest #44... therefore I have lowered my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation for this system to 30% due to the negative impact the shear has had on this system. Going forward... the parent upper trough of this system and surface swirl will be freed from the deep-layer ridge as the ridge gets kicked eastward by the fast approach of the current central Canadian upper trough. This will result in this system (surface low and parent upper trough) accelerating northward and then northeastward in the flow ahead of the upper trough and its surface cold front. Although this system is in a high shear environment and over water temps below 26 deg C... development odds remain above 0% as the divergence zone of the parent upper trough may aid in thunderstorm generation and the norhteastward acceleration will help the surface circulation keep up with the upper westerly wind speed... reducing the effects of shear. As such the 24 hour forecast point remains based on the forecast position of the parent upper trough's eastern upper divergence maximum as shown by this past 0000Z GFS model run. Odds of tropical development are droppped to 0% at 48 hours once the surface circulation is overran by the aforementioned cold front which should cause a loss in its tropical characteristics.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 8)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 35N-54W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 9)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (north Atlanitc near 41N-40W)
AREA OF INTEREST #47...A tropical wave of low pressure in the open central Atlantic... located along 50W longitude as of this writing... continues taking advantage of an upper outflow environment caused by a regional upper ridge cell while producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms with some signs of organization. Based on the organization of this activity... it appears the current area of the wave's maximum rotation is near 9.5N-50W with the concentrated activity and upper outflow clouds just to the north. This tropical wave is expected to continue west toward Trinidad and Tobago... the southern Lesser Antilles... and southeastern Caribbean Sea at varying speeds over the next five days. My updated forecast track in the outlook below has some adjustment based on the current position of the maximum rotation. The forward speed is expected to slow a bit over the next 48 hours as the current western Atlantic deep-layer ridge and associated surface easterly trade winds weakens once the current central Canada upper trough moves into the Atlantic. After the trades recover at 72 hours with the approach of another deep-layer ridge from Canada... this system is likely to slow down again at 96+ hours once encountering another area of weaker trades associated with the surface ridge weakness created by area of interest #44. In this update I continue to assign a 30% peak odds of tropical cyclone formation given the organized thunderstorm activity and favorable upper wind outlook that lies ahead. I did not select higher odds as model support remains weak... should this system become better organized or model support later develops then odds of development will be increased in future updates. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... the southern Lesser Antilles... Trinidad and Tobago... and northeastern Venezuela may see heavy rainfall and gusty winds from this system by Thursday.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 8)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10N-54W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 9)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Trinidad and Tobago near 10.5N-57W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 10)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (between Trinidad and Tobago and southern Lesser Antilles near 11.5N-61.5W
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 11)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea near 12N-64.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Nov 12)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just northeast of the ABC Islands near 12.5N-67.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Nov 6) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #44... subtropical cyclone formation suggested near 25.5N-70.5W at 30 hours... center passes just north of the northwestern Bahamas at 84 hours... curves west-northwest in track and makes landfall on the northeast coast of the Florida peninsula at 102 hours... turns north along the coast with center crossing the Florida/Georgia border at 114 hours and coastal Georgia at 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... surface low curves north to 33.5N-55W at 36 hours... upper trough to approach from its current central Canada position recurves the surface low eastward with cold front driven by the upper trough absorbing the surface low while located near 41.5N-30W at 78 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
1200Z (Nov 6) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #44... subtropical cyclone formation suggested near 25.5N-70.5W at 36 hours... center moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 78 hours... makes landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula and just northeast of Lake Okeechobee at 96 hours... center reaches west coast of Florida peninsula between Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte at 108 hours after which time it turns northward... center located over the northeastern Florida peninsula at 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... surface low curves north to 32.5N-55W at 36 hours... upper trough to approach from its current central Canada position recurves the surface low eastward with cold front driven by the upper trough absorbing the surface low while located near 36.5N-44W at 66 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 7) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #44... surface low becomes elongated north-south by 15 hours while located near 24.5N-70.2W with north end becoming a small circulation orbiting around the remaining south part... small circulation moves southwest into the northwestern Bahamas at 45 hours while large remainder of the circulation moves northwest to 29N-72.5W... through 60 hours the core of the large remainder circulation moves southwest into the northwest Bahamas while transitioing into a tropical cyclone and absorbing the small circulation... tropical cyclone makes landfall over the southeast Florida peninsula coast at 78 hours... tropical cyclone moves northwest to west coast of Florida between Port Charlotte and Tampa Bay by 93 hours and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico shortly thereafter... tropical cyclone turns north into the northwest coast of the Florida peninsula through 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... surface low curves north to 34N-54.5W at 27 hours... upper trough to approach from its current central Canada position recurves the surface low eastward with cold front driven by the upper trough absorbing the surface low while located near 39N-42.5W at 54 hours.
**For area of interest #47... no development shown
**Southwest part of cold front that absorbs area of interest #45 and its associated upper trough becomes cut-off near 26N-60W by 120 hours... the cut-off portion of the upper trough and tail end of the front evolves into a subtropical cyclone near 28.5N-60W at 144 hours.
**Southeast part of cold front that absorbs area of interest #45 and its associated upper trough becomes cut-off well west of the Canary Islands and near 29.5N-25W by 120 hours... the cut-off portion of the upper trough and nearby portion of the decaying cold front becomes a compact subtropical cyclone near 29.5N-26.5W at 144 hours.
0000Z (Nov 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #44... subtropical cyclone formation suggested near 25.5N-70W at 24 hours... moves into the northwestern Bahamas at 72 hours... curves west-northwest in track and makes landfall near Cape Canaveral Florida at 84 hours... continues northwest into inland south-central Georgia at 102 hours... as an inland remnant frontal cyclone accelerates north and reaches the Ohio/West Virginia/Pennsylvania border region by 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... surface low weakens to a trough near 32N-54W at 12 hours.
**For area of interest #47... tropical wave organizes into a tropical low over Trinidad and Tobago at 72 hours... tropical cyclone formation suggested offshore of northeastern Venezuela near 11.5N-64.5W at 102 hours... tropical cyclone located near 13N-66.2W at 120 hours