*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...UPDATE...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 3 2022 5:06 PM EDT...
Per the National Hurricane Center advisory released at 5 PM EDT... Martin has officially lost tropical characteristics in the far north Atlantic but remains a powerful and growing remnant cyclone. Refer to the home page bulletins on this site for potential impacts to the British Isles expected by late this weekend.
...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 3 2022 4:44 PM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics are exceptionally and unusually active for November due to multiple tropical cyclones and areas of interest as follows:
(1) Lisa has spent the last 36 hours crossing Belize... Guatemala... and parts of southeastern Mexico and is poised to emerge back over water in the Bay of Campeche. See Lisa section below for more information.
(2) Martin has become a far north Atlantic hurricane over the last 36 hours and will soon lose tropical characteristics... but remain a concern for marine interests while becoming a large and powerful remnant frontal cyclone. See Martin section below for more information.
(3) A series of disturbances with tropical characteristics are expected to cyclonically orbit around a cut-off upper vortex to become established in the vicinity of the Bahamas and northern Caribbean. See area of interest #44 section below for more information on the primary subtropical disturbance that is expected to be generated by upper divergence on the east side of the vortex. See area of interest #45 section below for a frontal low pressure system near 31N-58.5W expected to be dragged into deep-layered cyclonic flow associated with area of interest #44 and the upper vortex. See area of interest #46 section below for a southern Caribbean tropical disturbance expected to shift northeastward toward the northeastern Caribbean islands while also dragged into the aforementioned deep-layer cyclonic flow. Also note that areas of interest #44 and #46 may act to produce a prolonged period of heavy rainfall for the Dominican Republic... Puerto Rico... and the Virgin Islands starting Saturday.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post is designated #44 to #46 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
TROPICAL STORM LISA (RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA)... Satellite image of Hurricane Lisa nearing landfall on the Belize coast at 1820Z Wednesday November 2. At the same time Hurricane Martin and an additional frontal low pressure system can be seen far northeast of Lisa and in the open Atlantic... the frontal low has recently been introduced as an area of interest in the NHC tropical weather outlook and is tagged area of interest #45 in this blog post:
The western convergence zones of the upper troughs associated with areas of interest #44 and #45 are maintaining a strong surface ridge north of Lisa. On Wednesday afternoon Lisa managed to acheived peak strength as a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph maximum sustained winds before this ridge pushed Lisa into Belize. The small circulation of Lisa spread a small area of gusty tropical storm force winds inland across northern Belize and the northern Guatemala/Mexico border region which has recently dissipated... therefore as of 11 AM EDT today Lisa is now a cloud swirl tropical depression continuing westward into the Tabasco/Campeche border region of inland southeastern Mexico. Recent satellite animation suggests the surface ridge is still propelling Lisa at a decent forward speed... therefore I project that Lisa will move west-northwest around the southwest corner of the ridge and into the western Bay of Campeche in the next 24 hours. After that time Lisa will be in an environment of weaker steering as the western convergence zone of the south fragment of the current western US upper trough builds a weak surface ridge over the Texas/NE Mexico region. For now my forecast strategy is to drift Lisa west-southwest into southern Veracruz between 24 and 48 hours under that ridge's influence... then drift Lisa northwest until inland dissipation between 48 and 72 hours as that ridge continues east and influnces Lisa with its southwest side. There are alternative model solutions that suggest the Texas/NE Mexico surface ridge will be strong enough and/or the deep-layer cyclonic flow to be associated with areas of interest #44 and #46 (and the upper vortex that will be interacting with both areas of interest) will be strong enough to reverse Lisa southeastward back into Tabasco in the longer range. I currently do not forecast this as I supsect Lisa will move far west enough in the next 24 hours as discussed above to avoid interaction with the deep-layered cyclonic flow.
Regarding strength... I forecast Lisa to regain tropical storm strength by 24 hours once back over water... with westerly shear levels increasing courtesy of the approaching south fragment of the western US upper trough such that I forecast Lisa to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 hours. The main takeaway is that shear levels should be high enough to prevent Lisa from re-gaining significant strength... however an area of heavy rainfall affecting Tabasco and/or southern Veracruz could develop in association with Lisa's circulation over the next couple of days.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1200Z Nov 3)... 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the northern Guatemala/Mexico border at 17.9N-90.6W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Nov 4)... 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the western Bay of Campeche at 19N-95W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1200Z Nov 5)... 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered on the southern coast of Veracruz at 18.8N-96W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1200Z Nov 6)... Dissipating over southern Veracruz near 20N-97.5W
HURRICANE MARTIN... Within the last 36 hours and despite tracking northeast over mild low-20 deg C water temps in the north-central Atlantic... Martin became a hurricane as previously forecast. The merger of the nearby shortwave upper trough to the west and more amplified troughs from eastern Canada and northeastern US have resulted in a large scale and more amplified upper trough in Martin's environment. This trough not only is accelerating the hurricane rapidly northeastward... it is also supporting its thunderstorm activity with its tremendous eastern upper divergence zone and its destabilizng cold upper air temps which is how Martin became a hurricane over waters below 26 deg C. The hurricane is now quickly heading toward water temps in the low-10s of deg C and will proceed to lose thunderstorms and tropical characeristics in the next 24 hours. Despite the loss of tropical characteristics... the storm and its wind field will flourish in size due to the the tremendous upper divergence zone of the upper trough... resulting in a large remnant frontal cyclone that will be hazardous to marine interests in the northeast Atlantic. By later this weekend... the remnant cyclone as well as the north fracture of the current western US upper trough and its frontal cyclone will be merging near the British Isles where coastal surf and wind impacts appear increasingly likely based on the latest model projections.
Even though Martin was still considered a hurricane as of 11 AM EDT by the NHC... I anticipate a downgrade to a remnant frontal cyclone later today. Therefore I plan this to be my final statement on Martin on this blog in order to free up resources for forecasting Lisa and the other emerging areas of interest for my next updates. Statements regarding impacts to the British Isles from Martin's remnant cyclone will be carried on the home page bulletins of this site.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1200Z Nov 3)...85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered at 45.6N-37.9W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Nov 4)... Hurricane-force remnant frontal cyclone centered southeast of the southern tip of Greenland at 58.5N-35W
AREA OF INTEREST #44... The upper trough currently over coastal North Carolina will settle into the western Atlantic over the next couple of days. Meanwhile during this timeframe... the current western US upper trough will support a surface frontal system whose warm sector is expected to build a deep-layer ridge over eastern North America and the northwest Atlantic. This deep-layer ridge is expected to cause the western Atlantic upper trough to evolve into a cut-off upper vortex that drifts south toward the Caribbean. The eastern divergence zone of this upper vortex is expected to induce a tropical or subtropical disturbance over or just north of the northeastern Caribbean Islands (from the Dominican Republic to the Virgin Islands) by 48 hours. After formation... the disturbance is expected to then track north around the east side of the upper vortex... then curve west toward the northwestern Bahamas by day 5 while steered between the north side of the vortex and south side of the deep-layer ridge. My forecast track in the outlook below has been adjusted for the next 72 hours based on where this past 0600Z GFS model runs shows the divergence maximum of the upper vortex materializing. Note that during the middle to late part of the 5-day forecast period that the deep-layer ridge is expected to persist due to the warm sector of a central US frontal system to be supported by the south fracture of the current western US upper trough... followed by the warm sector of an additional frontal system that swings in from southwestern Canada. And in the longer range (5+ days)... a strong Canadian surface ridge to build in the wake of these frontal systems will continue to support an ongoing westward progression of this disturbance.
The subtropical designation is used in the outlook below instead of tropical as this system has potential to be a hybrid... supported by the eastern divergence zone of the cold core cut-off upper vortex and thunderstorm latent heat release driven outflow to occur adjacent to the vortex. Regarding odds of subtropical cyclone formation... the NHC has recently increased odds of development to 30% through day 5. In this update cycle I raise my peak development odds only slightly to 20% as only the less reliable CMC and NAVGEM models eventually show subtropical cyclone formation. The more respectable GFS and ECMWF suggest a system that becomes disorganized while absorbing area of interest #45 to the northeast and area of interest #46 to the southwest. Should the GFS and ECMWF later join the other models... I will be increasing development odds in future updates.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 4)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 25N-70W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 5)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (northeast of the Dominican Republic and north-northwest of Puerto Rico near 21N-68W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 6)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 22N-66.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 7)... 10% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 26N-70W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 8)... 20% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (northeast of the northwestern western Bahamas near 27.5N-75W)
AREA OF INTEREST #45...Over the last 36 hours... the eastern divergence zone of an upper trough that recently moved across the northwest Atlantic from the northeastern US has produced a surface frontal low pressure area well to the west of Hurricane Martin. This upper trough has recently merged with another from eastern Canada to make a large scale western Atlantic upper trough interacting with Hurricane Martin. As of 1200Z earlier today the frontal low pressure was positioned at 31N-58.5W and is now supported by split flow upper divergence between the southwest side of the large scale western Atlantic upper trough and northeast side of the current western Caribbean upper ridge cell. There have been intermittent occurrences of somewhat organized shower and thunderstorm activity with the frontal low such that it is now an area of interest in the NHC tropical weather outlook... this marks the forty-fifth tropical Atlantic area of interest I have tracked on this blog this year.
As noted in the above area of interest #44 section... a deep-layer ridge is expected to solidify across eastern North America and the northwest Atlantic while a cut-off upper vortex also materializes in the vicinity of the northern Caribbean and Bahamas. This ridge will push the surface frontal low of interest southward and then westward. In the upper layers... the south part of the western Atlantic upper trough will also swing west under the ridge's influence and then later merge with the north side of the upper vortex while the remainder of the upper trough moves eastward and away. Over the next 24 hours... the surface layer of the ridge will be further east and drive the frontal low south while the lagging upper layer does not yet move the forecast southern break of the western Atlantic upper trough... this will allow the frontal low to swing into the supportive upper divergence on the southeast side of the southern break. However I forecast 0% odds of subtropical cyclone formation for the 24 hour period as the remainder northern part of the upper trough produces excess westerly shear. I pull odds above 0% in the 48 hour window when this system finds itself in a calm area of upper winds between the departing northern part of the upper trough and the Bahamas/Caribbean upper vortex. Odds are dropped back to 0% by 72 hours once this system becomes absorbed by the north side of area of interest #44. Because the models favor developing area of interest #44 over this system... I agree with the NHC in showing a low 10% peak in development odds for this system.
A subtropical designation is used in the outlook below instead of fully tropical... as this system will eventually be supported by the eastern divergence zone of a southern break of the current west Atlantic upper trough as discussed in the previous paragraph (fully tropical systems are not supported by an upper trough)
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 4)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 27.5N-59W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 5)... 10% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 27N-64W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 6)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 27N-69W)
AREA OF INTEREST #46...Showers and thunderstorms have increased across the southern Caribbean Sea due to the outflow of the upper ridge cell in the region. Split flow upper divergence is expected to increase across the southern Caribbean in between the upper ridge cell and southwest side of an upper vortex to settle over the Bahamas and northern Caribbean... see area of interest #44 section above for more information on the vortex. Given the early presence of southern Caribbean thunderstorm activity and the forecast split flow upper divergence which will further aid the activity and surface pressure falls in the days ahead... I have added yet another area of interest for tropical development in the southern Caribbean. This marks the forty-sixth tropical Atlantic area of interest I have tracked on this blog this year.
This disturbance is forecast to move northeast toward the surface ridge weakness associated with area of interest #44 as best seen by this past 0600Z GFS model run... taking it from the southern Caribbean and into Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) over the next 96 hours. I have assigned low 10% odds of tropical cyclone formation as model support showing development is low... and this disturbance will later encounter westerly shear to be induced by the south side of the upper vortex mentioned in the previous paragraph. At 5+ days... this disturbance could transition into a more subtropical feature to the north of the Dominican Republic while supported by the east side of the upper vortex. Conditions for development could potentially be more conducive for development once it arrives there due to the area of upper divergence and also lower shear east of the upper vortex. At this time... the main concern from this disturbance is that it could add to rainfall totals in the Dominican Republic... Puerto Rico... and the Virgin Islands that area of interest #44 will already be producing... potentially creating flooding concerns.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 4)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean near 11N-80W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 5)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean near 12N-77.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 6)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Caribbean near 13N-75W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 7)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic near 16N-71.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 8)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of the north coast of the Dominican Republic near 20N-69W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Nov 3) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Lisa... weakens to a dissipating surface trough over Tabasco at 18 hours.
**For Hurricane Martin... transitions to remnant frontal cyclone near 47.5N-36W at 18 hours... frontal cyclone accelerates east-northeast to a position just northwest of the British Isles by 90 hours... north fracture of current western US upper trough and associated frontal cyclone approaches from the west and absorbs the remnant frontal cyclone at 102 hours.
**For area of interest #44... current North Carolina upper trough evolves into cut-off upper vortex just east of the eastern Bahamas by 48 hours... eastern divergence zone of upper vortex produces a surface subtropical low just east of the eastern Bahamas at 84 hours... upper vortex and surface subtropical low move west into the central Bahamas through 120 hours due to deep-layer ridge to the north.
**For area of interest #45... frontal low moves south to 27.5N-60W at 24 hours and dissipates shortly thereafter.
**For area of interest #46... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 3) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Lisa... weakens to an inland remnant low over the Campeche/Tabasco border at 24 hours... remnant low continues west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche and just offshore of Veracruz through 66 hours... dissipates at this location at 72 hours.
**For Hurricane Martin... transitions to remnant frontal cyclone near 49N-36W at 18 hours...frontal cyclone accelerates east-northeast to a position just northwest of the British Isles by 84 hours... north fracture of current western US upper trough and associated frontal cyclone approaches from the west and absorbs the remnant frontal cyclone at 108 hours.
**For area of interest #44... current North Carolina upper trough evolves into cut-off upper vortex just east of the eastern Bahamas by 48 hours... eastern divergence zone of upper vortex produces a surface trough east of the eastern Bahamas at 96 hours... surface trough and upper vortex move west into the central Bahamas through 126 hours due to deep-layer ridge to the north.
**For area of interest #45... frontal low moves south to 27.5N-59W at 24 hours... afterwards weakens to a trough that accelerates westward and merges with north side of surface trough associated with area of interest #44 through 126 hours.
**For area of interest #46... no development shown
0600Z (Nov 3) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Lisa... weakens to a remnant surface low that tracks into the southern edge of the Bay of Campeche from the Tabasco/Veracruz border at 27 hours... dissipates just offshore of Veracruz at 39 hours.
**For Hurricane Martin... transitions into a remnant frontal cyclone near 48.8N-35W at 12 hours... accelerates east-northeast to a position just northwest of the British Isles by 75 hours... north fracture of current western US upper trough and associated frontal cyclone approaches from the west and swings the remnant frontal cyclone of Martin on a counter-clockwise loop that causes it to pass just south of Iceland through 99 hours and then it loses its identity in northwest side of the dominating frontal cyclone by 114 hours.
**For area of interest #44... current North Carolina upper trough evolves into cut-off upper vortex just east of the eastern Bahamas by 48 hours... upper divergence between northeast side of the upper vortex and southwest side of a deep-layered ridge to the north produces a surface low near 27N-68.8W at 87 hours... deep-layer ridge subsequently expands westward due to warm sectors of frontal systems from central US and western Canada with upper divergence between northwest side of the upper vortex and south side of expanded ridge producing a new surface low just east of the northwestern Bahamas at 99 hours while the original surface low dissipates... surface low continues west into the northwestern Bahamas through 120 hours under the influence of a strong Canadian surface ridge that builds in the wake of the aforementioned frontal systems.
**For area of interest #45... frontal low moves south to 27.5N-60W through 21 hours... afterwards loses its identity to dropping surface pressures to the southwest associated with area of interest #44.
**For area of interest #46... surface pressures fall across the southern Caribbean through 66 hours due to split flow upper divergence between western Caribbean upper ridge cell and upper vortex associated with area of interest #44... tropical cyclone formation suggested offshore of northwestern Colombia and near 12N-76.5W at 75 hours... weak tropical cyclone continues northeast around deep-layered cyclonic flow associated with the upper vortex and area of interest #44 and weakens to a remnant low just offshore of the south coast of the southeastern Dominican Republic at 111 hours due to shear caused by the upper vortex... remnant low continues north across the eastern Dominican Republic and broadens due to widespread upper divergence on the east side of the upper vortex through 120 hours.
0600Z (Nov 3) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Lisa... enters the Bay of Campeche from Tabasco province at 18 hours... continues west-northwest toward surface ridge weakness associated with central US frontal system and reaches 21N-95.5W at 48 hours... drifts east-southeast to 20.5N-94W through 84 hours due to upper westerlies associated with south fragment of current western US upper trough and associated surface ridge that builds behind the upper trough... upper trough fragment merges with upper vortex associated with area of interest #44 with the deep-layer cyclonic flow around the enlarged upper vortex and large surface circulation of of area of interest #44 dragging Lisa south back toward the Tabasco coast through 126 hours.
**For Hurricane Martin... transitions into a frontal cyclone near 48.8N-36W at 12 hours... accelerates east-northeast to a position just northwest of the British Isles by 90 hours... north fracture of current western US upper trough and associated frontal cyclone approaches from the west and swings the remnant frontal cyclone of Martin on a counter-clockwise loop that causes it to pass just south of Iceland through 114 hours and then it loses its identity in northwest side of the dominating frontal cyclone by 126 hours.
**For area of interest #44... current North Carolina upper trough evolves into cut-off upper vortex just east of the eastern Bahamas by 48 hours with divergence on the southeast side of the upper vortex creating a broad area of low surface pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea... broad low pressure lifts north across Puerto Rico at 66 hours... subtropical cyclone formation suggested near 24N-65.5W at 84 hours... strengthening subtropical to tropical cyclone moves northwest to 30N-74W through 120 hours.
**For area of interest #45... frontal low moves south to 29N-59.5W at 12 hours and dissipates shortly thereafter.
**For area of interest #46... no development shown
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