MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #14
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…TUESDAY MAY 24 2022 11:55 PM EDT...
The central Atlantic deep-layered low pressure has ran out of subtropical development potential… see area of interest #2 section below for more information. Elsewhere… the ECMWF model forecasts the remnants of area of interest #3 to be dragged by the current north Atlantic cold front into the waters offshore of North Carolina within 24 hours. Although wind shear in the region will remain low with an upper layer of ridging persisting… water temps will be below 26 deg C… which in combination with the warm upper air temps of the upper ridging will not provide enough instability needed for tropical development. Therefore the remnants of area of interest #3 are not expected to re-emerge with tropical development potential.
In the long range… as we head toward the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st… the following possible Atlantic tropical areas of interest may emerge:
(1) There is a high chance of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone formation due south of Mexico in the vicinity of 95W longitude. Over the next several days models suggest an ongoing ridge weakness over western North America which may allow the eastern Pacific tropical system to migrate north… possibly crossing over the narrow part of southeast Mexico and into the Bay of Campeche waters of the Atlantic basin.
(2) The current western US amplified upper trough is forecast to deposit an upper vortex over the southeastern US… the eastern divergence zone of which could trigger a subtropical or tropical disturbance offshore of the southeastern US and Bahamas in a week or so.
Will cease the daily production of birdseye view blog posts until the start of Hurricane season (June 1st)… or unless one the potential areas of interest mentioned in the previous paragraph materializes just before the start of the season.
Final note: new to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The areas of interest mentioned in the first paragraph of this blog post are designated #2 and #3 as I designated the first one of this year earlier this month (in birdseye view posts #1 to #9 on the home page). This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #2…The deep-layer low pressure in the open central Atlantic has not acquired sufficient shower and thunderstorm activity to obtain tropical characteristics… a sign that the combination of cold upper air temps and low-20 deg C water was not enough to kick off instability. A surface cold front and upper trough advancing across the North Atlantic has fractured the deep-layer ridge in the region into western and eastern Atlantic cells… therefore the ridge will no longer be able to trap the deep-layer low in the central Atlantic. Expect the deep-layer low to advance east-northeast into cooler water while steered by the flow ahead of the cold front and upper trough… subtropical development of the deep-layer low is therefore not possible going forward.
As of 18Z earlier today the deep-layer low was centered at 34N-49W… or a little east of the previous forecast track. The updated track in the outlook below is nudged east… which also lines up with the latest model trends. This is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog as subtropical development is no longer possible.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 25)… 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 36N-45W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #2…Current central Atlantic surface low moves east-northeast and dissipates near 35N-44W at 36 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface low moves east-northeast and dissipates between 24 and 48 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates
**For remnants of area of interest #3… surface low emerges into the waters offshore of North Carolina at 24 hours… dissipates after 48 hours
1200Z GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface low moves east-northeast and dissipates near 35N-45W at 36 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface low moves east-northeast and dissipates near 37N-43W at 42 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates