*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY OCTOBER 24 2022 3:23 PM EDT...
The following is a special update on the subtropical low pressure area approaching Bermuda from the east which was tagged area of interest #41 in full update #137... as this feature has become considerably better organized since the full update. Refer to full update #137 for more information on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.
AREA OF INTEREST #41... Visible (left) and water vapor (right) imagery of organizing low pressure area approaching Bermuda from the east... taken at 1740Z:
The surface trough of low pressure approaching Bermuda from the east has re-established a closed surface circulation throughout the morning and early afternoon hours and as of 1800Z was located at 31.5N-63.5W. Per water vapor imagery which better defines the upper-level wind field... the quick re-development of this system has been aided by split flow upper divergence between the northwest quadrant of the upper vortex and southwest quadrant of the deep-layered ridge in the region... with the split flow upper divergence helping to drop surface pressures. An ASCAT-C descending pass (https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATCData.php) also confirmed the closed surface circulation featuring winds approaching 30 knots (35 mph) just northeast of the center. The surface circulation features a small central area of showers and thunderstorms... with a larger area of activity north of the center aided by the outflow of the upper layers of the deep-layer ridge. With this system coupled to the upper outflow of the warm core ridge... re-establishment of a closed surface circulation... and a central area of thunderstorm activity... the potential for the formation of a tropical depression or perhaps minimal tropical storm by tonight has drastically increased. As of 2 PM EDT the NHC has raised odds of tropical cyclone formation to 70%... and in this special update I have raised odds of development to 80% for the next 6 hours as the central area of activity is still persisting. By 24 hours I drop development odds to 0% as this system continues west-northwest to northwest into water temps below 26 deg C with upper air temps also too warm to support instability over cooler waters. The forecast track is also adjusted westward to account for the current position of the closed surface circulation... which means Bermuda will see the passage of the circulation center sooner and within the next 6 hours. A short period of heavy rains and gusty winds is possible during this window as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity is located north of the center and will pass north of the island.
An additional and potentially stronger subtropical to tropical low pressure area is forecast to approach Bermuda from the southwest by Thursday. Refer to full update #137... area of interest #42 section... available on the home page of this site for more information on this additional system.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 6 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 25)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bermuda near 32N-65W)
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Oct 25)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 33.5N-69W)