BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #134

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...THURSDAY OCTOBER 20 2022 5:40 AM EDT...

A mid-latitude upper trough and associated surface frontal low with thunderstorm activity is currently located in the open central Atlantic in the vicinity of 36N-42.5W. This system is expected to stall in this region while becoming cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies by a warm core upper ridge to build to the north while bolstered by warm southerly flow to occur on the east side of a sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone that is currently forecast to develop (out of the merger of current eastern... north-central... and western Canada frontal lows). While cut-off and stalled in the open central Atlantic... this system has potential to evolve into a deep-layered low pressure system parked over warm enough waters to acquire tropical characteristics. Currently not upgrading this system as an area of interest for tropical development on this blog as model runs have not been consistent on whether or not the deep-layered low pressure system will be circular/consolidated enough to transition into a subtropical cyclone. Should later model runs trend in this direction or if observations later warrant... this system will be introduced as an area of interest in future updates.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


0000Z (Oct 20) CMC Model Run...

**Frontal low in open central Atlantic moves southeast to 33N-39.5W at 12 hours... accelerates southwest to 27.5N-48.5W at 54 hours where it weakens to a surface trough


0000Z (Oct 20) ECMWF Model Run...

**Model run not available at above-mentioned source


0000Z (Oct 20) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over next 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Oct 20) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over next 168 hours (7 days)

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