*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 19 2022 3:46 AM EDT...
The eastern divergence zone of a mid-latitude upper trough along 60W longitude is producing a broad surface low pressure in the vicinity of 37.5N-52.5W. This system is expected to continue eastward into the open central Atlantic over the next few days... and then stall in this region while becoming cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies by a warm core upper ridge to build to the north while bolstered by warm southerly flow to occur on the east side of a sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone that is currently forecast to develop. While cut-off and stalled in the open central Atlantic... this system has potential to evolve into a deep-layered low pressure system parked over warm enough waters to acquire tropical characteristics. Currently not upgrading this system as an area of interest for tropical development on this blog as model runs have not been consistent on whether or not the deep-layered low pressure system will be circular/consolidated enough to transition into a subtropical cyclone. Should later model runs trend in this direction or if observations later warrant... this system will be introduced as an area of interest in future updates.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Oct 19) CMC Model Run...
**Over next 60 hours the current Great Lakes frontal cyclone and its upper vortex merge with additional upper troughs/surface lows over western and central Canada to produce a sprawling frontal cyclone across much of Canada... warm sector of this frontal cyclone amplifies a north-central Atlantic upper ridge which causes the upper trough/surface low currently heading into the central Atlantic to evolve into a cut-off deep-layered low pressure system near 30N-39.5W at 60 hours... surface layer of deep-layered low accelerates west and reaches 30.5N-58.5W at 120 hours.
0000Z (Oct 19) ECMWF Model Run...
**Model run not available at above-mentioned source
0000Z (Oct 19) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over next 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z (Oct 18) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over next 168 hours (7 days)