*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY OCTOBER 17 2022 12:50 AM EDT...
Continuing to monitor a tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic for signs of development... see area of interest #40 section below for more information. Elsewhere... the frontal low pressure system and upper trough currently in the vicinity of Bermuda is expected to pivot east into the waters west-southwest of the Azores over the next four days. After that time... the upper trough and surface frontal low have potential to transition into a westward-retrograding deep-layered low pressure system that could acquire tropical characteristics over the open central Atlantic... reference the GFS... NAVGEM... and CMC models in the computer model summary section below for more information. If the current model solutions hold... will consider upgrading the frontal low/upper trough system into an area of interest on this blog in future updates.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #40 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #40... The tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms... thus continuing to not show signs of development progress. Noting that the south side of the Atlantic surface ridge is expected to remain weak during the forecast period due the frontal low pressure in the vicinity of Bermuda that will be pivoting east with its supporting upper trough. As a result a sluggish west-northwest track is forecast for this tropical wave of low pressure (as opposed to a faster more westward motion which would occur if the Atlantic surface ridge was stronger). The low-latitude upper trough currently east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles is expected to shift east toward the forecast track region of this tropical wave and hence increase shear over it in the next 24 hours. However between 24 and 72 hours the shear has potential to relax as this upper trough weakens while it remains cut-off from high-latitude cold air... therefore in this update I continue to maintain this tropical wave as an area of interest for possible development. However I also continue to assign a low 10% peak in the development odds to acknowledge the ongoing lack of computer model support showing development. I have tapered development odds back down to 0% by 96 hours as the south part of the upper trough currently associated with the frontal low near Bermuda is expected to shift closer to this tropical wave and increase the wind shear in its environment.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11.5N-38.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 19)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-41W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 20)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-45W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 21)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 14.5N-48W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Oct 16) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #40... no development shown
**Current northeast Canada frontal low and upper vortex are kicked northeast into the far north Atlantic and Greenland by current central Canadian upper trough which will develop a frontal cyclone near the Great Lakes by 24+ hours... warm sector of Great Lakes frontal cyclone builds a new western Atlantic upper ridge that sends the south part of the current Bermuda upper trough toward AOI #40 and north part of upper trough (and associated surface low) to the waters west-southwest of the Azores by 102 hours... through 114 hours the Great Lakes frontal cyclone and its upper vortex merge with additional upper troughs/surface lows over western and central Canada to produce a sprawling frontal cyclone across much of Canada... warm sector of sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone expands the western Atlantic upper ridge into the central Atlantic through 114 hours which in turn cuts-off the upper trough/surface low west-southwest of the Azores into a westward-retrograding deep-layered low pressure system... deep-layered low pressure centered near 29.5N-45.5W at 138 hours.
1200Z (Oct 16) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #40... no development shown
**Current northeast Canada frontal low and upper vortex are kicked northeast into the far north Atlantic and Greenland by current central Canadian upper trough which will develop a frontal cyclone near the Great Lakes by 24+ hours... from 96 to 120 hours the Great Lakes frontal cyclone and its upper vortex merge with additional upper troughs/surface lows over western and central Canada to produce a sprawling frontal cyclone across much of Canada while the southern portion of the Great Lakes upper vortex moves into the western Atlantic offshore of the southeastern US where it produces an inverted surface trough over the western Bahamas... warm sector of sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone builds an eastern US to northwest Atlantic upper ridge that causes the smaller upper vortex/inverted surface trough offshore of the southeastern US to evolve into a cut-off deep-layered low pressure system with potential tropical characteristics near 30N-79.5W at 144 hours.
1800Z (Oct 16) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #40... no development shown
**Current northeast Canada frontal low and upper vortex are kicked northeast into the far north Atlantic and Greenland by current central Canadian upper trough which will develop a frontal cyclone near the Great Lakes by 24+ hours... warm sector of Great Lakes frontal cyclone builds a new western Atlantic upper ridge that sends the south part of the current Bermuda upper trough toward AOI #40 and north part of upper trough (and associated surface low) to the waters west-southwest of the Azores by 84 hours... through 102 hours the Great Lakes frontal cyclone and its upper vortex merge with additional upper troughs/surface lows over western and central Canada to produce a sprawling frontal cyclone across much of Canada... warm sector of sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone expands the western Atalntic upper ridge into the central Atlantic through 102 hours which in turn cuts-off the upper trough/surface low west-southwest of the Azores into a westward-retrograding deep-layered low pressure system... the surface layer of the deep-layered low becomes a potential subtropical cyclone near 30N-40W at 126 hours... potential subtropical cyclone located near 30.2N-42W at 144 hours.
1200Z (Oct 16) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #40... no development shown
**Current northeast Canada frontal low and upper vortex are kicked northeast into the far north Atlantic and Greenland by current central Canadian upper trough which will develop a frontal cyclone near the Great Lakes by 24+ hours...warm sector of Great Lakes frontal cyclone builds a new western Atlantic upper ridge that sends the south part of the current Bermuda upper trough toward AOI #40 and north part of upper trough (and associated surface low) to the waters west-southwest of the Azores by 96 hours... through 120 hours the Great Lakes frontal cyclone and its upper vortex merge with additional upper troughs/surface lows over western and central Canada to produce a sprawling frontal cyclone across much of Canada...warm sector of sprawling Canadian frontal cyclone expands the western Atalntic upper ridge into the central Atlantic through 120 hours which in turn cuts-off the upper trough/surface low west-southwest of the Azores into a westward-retrograding deep-layered low pressure system... the surface layer of the deep-layered low weakens to a surface trough near 27.5N-41.5W by 144 hours.