BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #130

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SUNDAY OCTOBER 16 2022 2:40 AM EDT...

Karl and its subsequent remnants have dissipated in the Bay of Campeche just offshore of the Tabasco/Veracruz border region... see remnants of Karl for more information. Elsewhere... continuing to monitor the tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern Atlantic for signs of development... see area of interest #40 section below for more information.


New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #40 as the other numbers were used in previous birdseye view posts. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.


REMNANTS OF KARL... Tropical Depression Karl was downgraded to a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche and just offshore of Tabasco at 5 AM EDT on Saturday. As a weaker and shallower feature... the remnant low stopped moving southward while decoupling from northerly upper winds being generated by the east side of an upper ridge cell over mainland Mexico and instead turned westward while becoming steered by the surface ridge over the southeastern United States. Although the anticyclonic core of the upper ridge cell over mainland Mexico will shift east into the Bay of Campeche and reduce shear over the Bay... the remnant low of Karl will not be around to take advantage of the improved environment as it has recently dissipated. Rainfall flooding potential for southeastern Mexico has correspondingly ended... and this is my final statement on Karl on this blog.


AREA OF INTEREST #40... The tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms... thus not showing signs of development progress. Combined with the models backing off on showing development... the tropical wave has been cancelled from the NHC tropical weather outlook product within the last 24 hours. Noting that the south side of the Atlantic surface ridge is expected to remain weak during the 5-day forecast period due the new surface low pressure in the vicinity of Bermuda that will be pivoting east with its supporting upper trough. As a result a sluggish west-northwest track is forecast for this tropical wave of low pressure (as opposed to a faster more westward motion which would occur if the Atlantic surface ridge was stronger). The low-latitude upper trough currently northeast of the Lesser Antilles is expected to shift east toward the forecast track region of this tropical wave and hence increase shear over it in the short-term. However by 48 to 96 hours the shear has potential to relax as this upper trough weakens while it remains cut-off from high-latitude cold air... therefore in this update I have maintained this tropical wave as an area of interest for possible development while at the same time lowering peak odds of development to 10% to acknowledge the lack of the wave's development thus far. I have tapered development odds back down to 0% by 120 hours as the upper trough that is currently supporting the Bermuda surface low pressure system subsequently shifts closer to this tropical wave and increases the wind shear in its environment.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 17)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 10.5N-35.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11.5N-38.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 19)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-41W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 20)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-45W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Oct 21)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 14.5N-48W)


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Oct 15) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #40... no development shown


1200Z (Oct 15) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #40... no development shown


1800Z (Oct 15) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #40... no development shown


1800Z (Oct 15) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #40... organizes into a tropical low near 11.2N-33W at 30 hours... tropical low located near 15.5N-44W at 120 hours.

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