*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY MAY 23 2022 11:40 PM EDT...
See area of interest #2 section below for an update on the central Atlantic deep-layer low pressure being monitored for acquisition of tropical characteristics. Elsewhere… the ECMWF model forecasts the remnants of area of interest #3 to be dragged by the current northwest Atlantic cold front into the waters offshore of North Carolina within 48 hours. Although wind shear in the region will remain low with an upper layer of ridging persisting… water temps will be below 26 deg C… which in combination with the warm upper air temps of the upper ridging will not provide enough instability needed for tropical development. Therefore the remnants of area of interest #3 are not expected to re-emerge with tropical development potential.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The areas of interest mentioned in the prior paragraph are designated #2 and #3 as I designated the first one of this year earlier this month (in birdseye view posts #1 to #9 on the home page). This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #2…The current central Atlantic deep-layer cyclone remains isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies while surrounded by a deep-layer ridge to the west and north. Even though the current upper trough energy over eastern Canada has broken through the surface layer of the ridge by driving a surface cold front into the northwest Atlantic… the central Atlantic surface cyclone is expected to drift south for 24 more hours as the middle and upper upper layers of the ridge… particularly to the west of the cyclone… will remain intact to influence the cyclone’s steering. The 18Z position of the cyclone (35N-49W) was slightly west of the previous forecast… already placing it over 21.5 deg C water. Moreover the updated forecast track points in the updated outlook below are nudged south and/or west in accordance with the latest model consensus… which will bring the cyclone over 22 deg C water by tomorrow. However given that there has only been a slight increase in shower activity near the cyclone’s center (on the east side of the cyclone)… the upper air temps of the cyclone are likely not cold enough for the instability needed for subtropical development. Therefore I have lowered the odds of subtropical cyclone formation to 10%.
Subtropical development odds at 48 hours are lowered to 0% as the cyclone is forecast to finally be scooped east-northeast as the upper trough and surface front approaching from the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada closes in and steers it… bringing it over cooler water.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 24)…10% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 33.5N-49.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 25)… 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 36N-46W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #2…Current central Atlantic surface frontal cyclone drifts southeast while slowly weakening and reaches 33N-47.5W at 48 hours… dissipates near 34N-45W at 60 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface cyclone drifts south and reaches 33.5N-49.5W at 24 hours… moves northeast and by 72 hours reaches 45N-41W where it becomes a broad elongated less tropical low pressure along a frontal zone sweeping in from the northwest
**For remnants of area of interest #3… surface low emerges into the waters offshore of North Carolina at 48 hours… weakens to a surface trough at this location by 72 hours
1800Z GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface cyclone drifts south and reaches 34N-49.5W at 24 hours… afterwards moves east-northeast and dissipates near 35N-45W at 54 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #2… Current central Atlantic surface cyclone drifts south and reaches 33N-49.5W at 36 hours… afterwards moves east-northeast and dissipates near 35N-44W at 66 hours while new frontal low to the north dominates