*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY OCTOBER 11 2022 6:20 PM EDT...
Colorized infrared satellite image of newly-formed Tropical Storm Karl taken at 1800Z earlier this afternoon. Black plus mark on the southwestern portion of the strong thunderstorm mass indicates the position of the center of circulation:
Through the morning and afternoon hours... the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche which originated as a northern split of Julia's remnant outer circulation fired a strong and expanding thunderstorm complex. The resulting latent heat release driven upper outflow of the complex was enough to quickly develop the disturbance into Tropical Storm Karl as of 5 PM EDT... based on aircraft reconnaissance measurements which spotted a fully closed circulation and 40 mph maximum sustained winds. The northern outflow of the disturbance appears to also have been enhanced by mid-latitude upper westerly flow across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States... with these upper westerlies not being close enough to shear the disturbance and thus only benefit the disturbance with its outflow enhancing effect.
The consolidation of the thunderstorm activity around the new circulation center that is now Karl has for now brought an end to the heavy rainfall across southeastern Mexico. However should the storm grow in size or drift closer to the coast while it tracks erratically... heavy rainfall with flash flood and mudslide potential could return to southwestern Campeche... Tabasco... Veracruz... Chiapas... and Oaxaca. A tropical storm watch is in effect for northern portions of the Veracruz coast for gusty winds and possible coastal surf... as the models continue to agree that Karl will eventually turn west toward Veracruz once it finishes moving erratically in the short-term. However also note that coastal surf could also develop across the southern Veracruz coast... Tabasco coast... and Campeche coast should Karl undergo additional strengthening.
In lieu of Karl's quick formation... will attempt to release my next full update on the Atlantic tropics earlier this evening... with more information about its track and intensity prospects.
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