BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #116A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SATURDAY OCTOBER 1 2022 2:20 AM EDT...

To the left is a colorized infrared satellite image of Hurricane Ian making landfall over northeastern South Carolina earlier this afternoon. The center and right images are Doppler radar of Ian taken at various times after landfall as it gradually transitions to an inland remnant low pressure (radar imagery credit goes to North Carolina State University... https://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/radarchive/):

The following is a special update on the effects of Hurricane Ian across the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic United States... refer to full update #116 available on the home page of this site for information on the rest of the Atlantic tropics. My next full update on the Atlantic tropics is scheduled for later this morning.


For much of Friday and while on approach to the northeastern South Carolina coast... Ian maintained a strength of 85 mph maximum sustained winds. Additional strengthening was inhibited as Ian ingested cooler dry air to the west in association with the amplifying upper trough it has been interacting with... which resulted in a reduction in thunderstorm activity and thus the amount of thunderstorm latent heat release driven upper outflow was reduced (albeit just before landfall time... Ian did redevelop a burst of thunderstorms just northwest of the circulation center... however doing so too late to strengthen the storm before its landfall). However the upper air support from non-tropical sources... such as the aforementioned upper trough... also prevented Ian from dropping below 85 mph maximum sustained winds. Ian moved faster to the north than prior forecasts... and made an early landfall near Georgetown South Carolina at 2:15 PM EDT Friday with a surface central pressure of 977 mb and with maximum sustained winds still estimated at 85 mph. Once removed from the warm Gulf stream waters after landfall... the inland circulation of Ian over the Carolinas quickly lost thunderstorm activity and it began to weaken. The loss of thunderstorms and it being supported only by non-tropical upper air support meant Ian transitioned to an inland surface remnant low pressure area by 5 PM EDT. As of this writing... Ian's remnant low pressure center is parked over north-central North Carolina.


Wind... on Friday Ian produced primarily tropical storm force gusts across the eastern two-thirds of South Carolina... central and eastern North Carolina... and into south-central and southeastern Virginia as of late. Based on the latest wind observations at National Weather Service stations... the remainder of the gusty winds is currently parked over southeastern Virginia due to the pressure gradient between Ian's northeast side and south side of surface high pressure ridging to the north. These winds should decline overnight as Ian continues to weaken.


Coastal surf... on Friday the coastal surf across coastal Georgia and northeastern Florida relaxed... and increased across the coastal Carolinas for the afternoon hours. The remainder of the surf associated with Ian as of this writing is along the mid-Atlantic United States coast in the vicinity of southeastern Virginia due to the wind field pushing toward shore between Ian's northeast side and and south side of surface high pressure ridging to the north. This surf should gradually subside today as Ian's remnant low pressure continues to fade.


Rainfall... Ian produced heavy rainfall and flood advisories across much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. Doppler radar as of this writing shows the remainder of the rainfall is currently located across West Virginia... northern and western Virginia... Maryland... Delaware... Pennsylvania... and New Jersey. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out in this region.


The following are wind reports at National Weather Service stations over the last several hours across the Carolians and Virginia listed in mph. Due to the number of wind reports... called out the region of the state for each location (northeast... southeast... etc.):

**Beaufort SC (southern SC coast)... sustained 28... gust 47... 10:15 AM EDT Friday

**Charleston SC (central SC coast)... sustained 51... gust 58... 1:56 PM EDT Friday

**Georgetown SC (northeastern SC coast)...sustained 31... gust 54... 12:35 PM EDT Friday

**Myrtle Beach SC (northeastern SC coast)...sustained 25.. gust 45... 9:56 AM EDT Friday

**Florence SC (inland northeastern SC)... sustained 30... gust 48... 2:53 PM EDT Friday

**Columbia SC (inland central SC)... sustained 13... gust 37... 4:53 PM EDT Friday

**Wilmington NC (southern NC coast)... sustained 31... gust 47... 5:53 PM EDT Friday

**Jacksonville NC (southern NC coast)...sustained 23... gust 47... 4:56 PM EDT Friday

**Morehead City NC (central NC coast)...sustained 22... gust 38... 3:58 PM EDT Friday

**Hatteras NC (northern NC coast)... sustained 22... gust 40... 5:51 PM EDT Friday

**Lumberton NC (inland south-central NC)...sustained 18... gust 53... 3:56 PM EDT Friday

**Rockingham NC (inland south-central NC)...sustained 28... gust 46... 2:55 PM EDT Friday

**Charlotte NC (inland south-central NC)...sustained 24... gust 44... 3:52 PM EDT Friday

**Fayetteville NC (inland south-central NC)...sustained 36... gust 49... 2:53 PM EDT Friday

**Sanford NC (inland central NC)...sustained 24... gust 44... 6:35 PM EDT Friday

**Raleigh NC (inland central NC)...sustained 31... gust 48... 5:51 PM EDT Friday

**Greenville NC (inland eastern NC)...sustained 21... gust 32... 3:53 PM EDT Friday

**Rocky Mount NC (inland northeastern NC)...sustained 26... gust 43... 2:53 PM EDT Friday

**Elizabeth City NC (inland northeastern NC)...sustained 33... gust 49... 3:54 PM EDT Friday

**Greensboro NC (inland north-central NC)...sustained 18... gust 29... now

**Greensboro NC (inland north-central NC)...sustained 35... gust 51... 8:54 PM EDT Friday

**Salisbury NC (inland west-central NC)...sustained 25... gust 40... 6:55 PM EDT Friday

**Danville VA (inland south-central VA)...weather station outage... now

**Danville VA (inland south-central VA)...sustained 28... gust 47...7:53 PM EDT Friday

**South Boston VA (inland south-central VA)...sustained 13... gust 25... now

**South Boston VA (inland south-central VA)...sustained 21... gust 37...10:15 PM EDT Friday

**South Hill VA (inland south-central VA)...sustained 12... now

**South Hill VA (inland south-central VA)...sustained 17... gust 33... 6:35 PM EDT Friday

**Virginia Beach VA (southern VA coast)...sustained 10... now

**Virginia Beach VA (southern VA coast)... sustained 35... gust 53... 6:56 PM EDT Friday

**Onancock VA (southern VA coast Delmarva peninsula)...sustained 28... gust 38... now

**Onancock VA (southern VA coast Delmarva peninsula)... sustained 35... gust 47... 11:15 PM EDT

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