BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #114A (Special Update)

Updated: Sep 29

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE...WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 28 2022 10:43 PM EDT...

To the left is a colorized infrared satellite image of Hurricane Ian making landfall over the southwestern part of the Florida peninsula earlier this afternoon. The center and right images are Doppler radar of Hurricane Ian taken at various times after landfall (radar imagery credit goes to Weather For You... https://www.weatherforyou.com/maps/punta+gorda-fl-interactive/26.929/-82.046):

The eye of powerful category 4 Hurricane Ian made landfall in southwestern Florida in the vicinity of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda at 3:10 PM EDT earlier this afternoon... only weakening just slightly to 150 mph maximum sustained winds from its 155 mph peak. The central pressure was estimated to climb from its 937 mb minimum to a 940 mb minimum at landfall time. Based on initial media reports... it appears devastating wind and coastal storm surge has badly damaged areas in the vicinity of Punta Gorda... Port Charlotte... Fort Myers... and Naples. Further north in west-central Florida (Sarasota... Tampa... Clearwater Beach)... the eye and associated core of strong hurricane winds wobbled more eastward in track and missed the area just to the south. Since landfall... Ian has steadily weakened to a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph maximum sustained winds as of 10 PM EDT while the center continues moving slowly northeast into the central Florida peninsula. Over the next hours... expect inland hurricane wind damage over central Florida to the south of Orlando and north of Lake Okeechobee (recent observations at Sebring Florida suggest hurricane-force winds have arrived here). I currently expect the hurricane force winds to reach as far east as areas just inland of east-central Florida (just inland... or west of... Melbourne... Cape Canaveral... Daytona Beach) before the core of hurricane force winds dissipates. Due to some southwesterly wind shear and ingestion of cooler drier air associated with the large-scale upper troughing over the eastern US and western Gulf of Mexico... Ian's southern thunderstorm activity has eroded away. Meanwhile central and northern parts of the Florida peninsula will remain covered in tropical storm force winds with some damage potential and heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential over the next several hours (if encountering a water-covered roadway... do not drive into it). Coastal surf over the next several hours will gradually decrease over the west coast of the Florida peninsula... and increase across the east coast. The tornadic east side of Ian has moved offshore of Florida's east coast... and the tornado threat appears to have subsided. The Florida panhandle meanwhile has escaped much of Ian's impacts as the hurricane has turned more east and less north in track since this past afternoon. For forecast impacts expected over the next few days over Georgia... the Carolinas... and eastern Tennessee... refer to the update below from 9:20 AM EDT. My next full update on Ian and the rest of the Atlantic tropics will be released by early Thursday morning.


The following are wind reports at National Weather Service stations across the Florida peninsula listed in mph. Due to the number of wind reports listed below... I have organized them by calling out which region of the Florida peninsula the weather station is located (southeast... northeast... etc). The weather station outages currently in progress along southwestern coastal Florida indicate the ferocity this hurricane had at landfall. Note the Punta Gorda weather station held on long enough to register a severe 123 mph gust before its outage:

**Fort Lauderdale FL (southeast FL).. sustained 20... gust 29... now

**Fort Lauderdale FL (southeast FL)... sustained 28... gust 43... 12:53 PM EDT

**Miami FL (southeast FL)... sustained 17... gust 30... now

**Miami FL (southeast FL)... sustained 22... gust 45... 11:53 AM EDT

**West Palm Beach FL (southeast FL)... sustained 24... gust 32... now

**West Palm Beach FL (southeast FL)... sustained 33... gust 45... 8:53 AM EDT

**Fort Pierce FL (southeast FL)... sustained 31... gust 45... now

**Naples FL (southwest FL)... weather station outage... now

**Naples FL (southwest FL)... sustained 41... gust 61... 9:53 AM EDT

**Fort Myers FL (southwest FL)... weather station outage... now

**Fort Myers FL (southwest FL)... sustained 31... gust 51... 9:53 AM EDT

**Punta Gorda FL (southwest FL)... weather station outage... now

**Punta Gorda FL (southwest FL)... sustained 86... gust 123... 2:54 PM EDT

**Sarasota FL (west-central FL)... sustained 39... gust 67... now

**Sarasota FL (west-central FL)... sustained 43... gust 82... 5:53 PM EDT

**Clearwater Beach FL (west-central FL)... sustained 18... gust 33... now

**Clearwater Beach FL (west-central FL)... sustained 26... gust 41... 7:55 PM EDT

**Tampa FL (west-central FL)... sustained 23... gust 59... now

**Tampa FL (west-central FL)... sustained 30... gust 64... 3:53 PM EDT

**Orlando FL (central FL)... sustained 32... gust 59... now

**Sebring FL (central FL)... sustained 52... gust 75... now

**Melbourne FL (east-central FL)... sustained 25... gust 43... now

**Cape Canaveral FL (east-central FL)...sustained 17... gust 29... now

**Cape Canaveral FL (east-central FL)... sustained 18... gust 44... 11:55 AM EDT

**Daytona Beach FL (east-central FL)...sustained 38... gust 47... now

**Daytona Beach FL (east-central FL)... sustained 41... gust 53... 7:53 PM EDT

**Saint Augustine FL (northeastern FL)... sustained 28... gust 28... now

**Jacksonville FL (northeastern FL)... sustained 23... gust 35... now

**Jacksonville FL (northeastern FL)... sustained 25... gust 38... 7:53 PM EDT

**Gainesville FL (north-central FL)... sustained 15... gust 29... now

**Gainesville FL (north-central FL)... sustained 20... gust 33... 6:53 PM EDT

**Ocala FL (north-central FL)... sustained 16... gust 28... now

**Horseshoe Beach FL (northwestern FL)... sustained 26... gust 35...now


...WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 28 2022 9:20 AM EDT...

Blend of infrared and true-color visible satellite as the sun rises over Hurricane Ian during its intensification from a category 3 to top-end category 4... image taken at 1150Z:

Frustrating-to-forecast Major Hurricane Ian has left us speechless this morning. After completion of its eyewall replacement cycle... it is now apparent the hurricane remains in a favorable upper-level wind setup where the northern outflow of the hurricane is boosted by the upper southwesterly flow ongoing out ahead of an upper trough over the eastern United States... instead of this upper flow shearing the hurricane. At 5 AM EDT... aircraft reconnaissance found Ian's surface pressure abruptly fell to 942 mb with winds in the new eyewall of Ian reaching 140 mph maximum sustained. At 6:35 AM EDT the situation has escalated in dramatic fashion with Ian knocking on the door of category 5... as Ian's maximum sustained winds were now clocked by aircraft reconnaissance to be 155 mph. The NHC reported at 7 AM EDT the central surface pressure of Ian had fallen to 937 mb. The situation is made worse as a blocking surface ridge setting up north of the powerful hurricane is making it slow down as the eye nears the west coast of Florida... in the Fort Myers to Port Charlotte region. It could very well be that we do not see enough shear to weaken the hurricane before it makes landfall... and we are faced with the stunning likelihood of a category 4 or 5 hurricane slowing to a crawl next to the Florida west coast:

(1) Along and south of the eye where the wind will most effectively push water toward the shore... coastal storm surge flooding is expected to be potentially catastrophic from the Port Charlotte to Naples region. The storm surge could be long-lasting as Ian slows to a crawl... listen to the advice of your local officials and local news media to evacuate in the face of updated storm surge forecasts if it is safe to evacuate to higher ground now.

(2) In close-proximity to the eye... there is a possibility of long-lasting highly-damaging wind from Fort Myers... across the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area... to perhaps as far north as Sarasota if the eye wobbles more toward the north. If in this region... get ready now to shelter in an interior room in the lowest-level of your building and be prepared to hunker there for an extended period of time. Have a battery-powered radio or device to listen for updates on the storm's current situation.


Regarding impacts to land areas:

(1) Coastal surf across western Cuba will continue to gradually improve today as Ian slowly lifts northward and away.

(2) The Florida Keys are being buffeted by tropical storm force conditions (wind and coastal storm surge) on the southeast side of Ian. Expect weather conditions to only gradually improve today as Ian slows down its forward speed.

(3) For the Florida peninsula... the east side of Ian has overspread the area. The expected slow down in the forward speed will subject the peninsula to prolonged impacts such as high rainfall totals creating a risk of major flash flooding... do not drive your car into a water-covered roadway if you encounter one. Much of the west coast of the Florida peninsula will see increasing wind and coastal surf over the next several hours... with a potentially long period of catastrophic storm surge and wind expected from the Naples to Sarasota region... see above statements for more information on this and what to do now. The latest shift in the forecast track means the east side of the peninsula will also see tropical storm force winds with some damage potential... as well as more coastal surf. The east side of Ian has and will continue to be at risk of producing tornadoes due to vertical wind shear between surface southerly flow on the east side of the storm and upper southwesterly flow overspreading Ian... have a way to watch or listen to local media with live coverage to know if you are under a tornado warning... and be prepared to quickly shelter in the lowest-level and interior-most location of your building. The tornado risk looks to overspread southern and central parts of the Florida peninsula... with the latest shift in the forecast track making it harder for Ian to lift its tornadic east side into the northern parts of the peninsula. Preparations across the peninsula should have been completed by now as severe weather has already moved into the area... unless local officials and local news media tell you it is safe to evacuate to higher ground now in the face of updated coastal storm surge forecasts.

(4) For the Florida panhandle... the latest shift in the storm track still will allow for coastal surf for the eastern half of the panhandle. The far eastern panhandle may also see high rainfall totals and flooding as Ian slows its forward speed.

(5) The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding and tropical storm force wind has reduced for southwestern Georgia... however has increased for southeastern Georgia. Coastal Georgia is also at increased risk for coastal surf. Timing of impacts for southeastern Georgia is late Thursday through early Saturday. Prepare now... and finish preparing by late tonight.

(6) Coastal South Carolina and coastal southern North Carolina can expect coastal surf to develop late Thursday through early Saturday. Stronger coastal surf... along with tropical storm force winds with some damage potential... is now expected across southern South Carolina where preparations should now be underway. Finish preparing by late tonight.

(7) Some heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding potential is possible across northern Georgia... the Carolinas... and eastern Tennessee by Sunday if the current forecast holds.


The following are recent wind reports at National Weather Service stations across southern Florida listed in mph.

**Key West FL... sustained 35... gust 48... now

**Key West FL... sustained 52... gust 75... 10:53 PM EDT

**Marathon FL... sustained 21... gust 41... now

**Marathon FL... sustained 30... gust 55... 2:53 AM EDT

**Fort Lauderdale FL... sustained 24... gust 38... 5:53 AM EDT

**Miami FL... sustained 17... gust 32... now

**Miami FL... sustained 12... gust 39... 1:53 AM EDT

**West Palm Beach FL...sustained 33... gust 45... now

**Fort Pierce FL... sustained 14... now

**Naples FL... sustained 41... gust 60... now

**Naples FL... sustained 38... gust 62... 7:53 AM EDT

**Fort Myers FL... sustained 21... gust 40... 5:53 AM EDT

**Punta Gorda FL... sustained 29... gust 54... now

**Sarasota FL... sustained 30... gust 54... now

**Clearwater Beach FL... sustained 17... gust 25... 8:35 AM EDT

**Sebring FL... sustained 23... gust 38... 7:35 AM EDT

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