MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #106B (Special Update)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 20 2022 6:50 PM EDT...
Yet another area of interest has materialized in the eastern tropical Atlantic to the west-southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... see area of interest #33 section below for more information.
**For information on Hurricane Fiona... refer to full update #106 available on the home page of this site.
**For information on newly-formed Tropical Depression Eight in the open central Atlantic... which is now Tropical Storm Gaston... refer to special update #106A available on the home page of this site.
**For information on area of interest #30 moving toward northeastern Venezuela... Trinidad and Tobago... and the southern Lesser Antilles... refer to full update #106 available on the home page of this site.
**For information on area of interest #32 currently located over western Africa... foreacast to potentially develop between the west coast of Africa and the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... refer to full update #106 available on the home page of this site.
AREA OF INTEREST #33... Colorized infrared satellite image of a tropical low pressure that is slowly becoming better organized to the west-southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands...taken at 2130Z. To the west and east of the tropical low are other areas of interest (designated #30 and #32 on this blog) being monitored for tropical development:
A tropical wave of low pressure was observed to enter the eastern tropical Atlantic from western Africa on September 18. Since then the wave has organized into an east-west elongated tropical low pressure now located west-southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands. The elongated circulation appears to have slowed down its westward progress while entangled with the low pressure field over northwestern Africa and the Iberian peninsula of Europe... being generated by the eastern divergence zone of an upper trough in the region. The elongated circulation is also likely becoming increasingly entangled with a large tropical wave of low pressure that will soon emerge into the far eastern tropical Atlantic which is designated area of interest #32 on this blog. The CMC model has insisted on developing this low pressure circulation... and indeed the west side of the elongated circulation is becoming better organized. I am initiating this circulation as the 33rd Atlantic tropical area of interest I have tracked on this blog this year.
My forecast below assumes the west side of the elongated circulation... currently located near 10.5N-29W... will consolidate and gradually increase its forward speed while escaping the grip of area of interest #32. However the westward forward speed by day 5 is kept a little below the typical 5W longitude per day seen in the deep tropics... as the steering Atlantic surface ridge will be in a weakened state due to the sprawling circulation of what will be the remnant frontal cyclone of Fiona in the northwest Atlantic/Atlantic Canada region. Conditions are favorable for development as the tropical low will be embedded below a vast area of tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow. And combined with the early signs of organization... I already have peak odds of tropical cyclone formation set at 30%. I have not assigned higher odds at this time as the CMC is the only global model showing this disturbance developing.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 21)...15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 10.5N-31W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 22)...25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11N-33W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 23)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11.5N-36W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 24)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12N-40W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Sep 25)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-44W)