BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #94B (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


…UPDATE…SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 4:38 PM EDT…

Hurricane Ida beginning to weaken slowly after landfall (currently at 140 mph max sustained winds with 937 mb central pressure). This is still a dangerous category 4 pummeling southeast Louisiana. Here are some of the latest observations of wind (in mph) logged by National Weather Service stations:

**Boothville LA… sustained 24… gust 46 (4 AM CDT… winds are likely higher now as the station has stopped reporting over the last several hours)

**Grand Isle LA… sustained 58… gust 98 (1:55 PM CDT)

**Grand Isle LA… sustained 52… gust 94 (now)

**New Orleans LA… sustained 48… gust 82 (now)

**Hammond LA… sustained 23… gust 38 (now)

**Baton Rouge LA… sustained 22… gust 38 (now)

**Gulfport MS… sustained 29… gust 41 (now)

**McComb MS… sustained 13… gust 24 (now)

**Hattiesburg MS… sustained 17… gust 31 (now)

**Mobile AL… sustained 15… gust 25 (1:53 PM CDT)

**Monroeville AL… sustained 16… gust 29 (12:53 PM CDT)

See update from 12:45 PM EDT below for more info on additional impacts expected from Ida.


…UPDATE…SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 2:15 PM EDT…

Ida relentlessly slamming Grand Isle and vicinity (in southeast Louisiana) with catastrophic wind and storm surge:

**Ida is estimated by the NHC to have maintained 150 mph max sustained winds in the eye wall while the central pressure fell back to 930 mb from 933 mb while making landfall. This is the first time on record that in two consecutive years (Laura 2020 and Ida 2021) that Louisiana had seen two 150 mph category 4 hurricanes make landfall.

**Media footage has been circulating from Grand Isle showing a pole-mounted storm camera above ground level inundated by storm surge flooding and blasts of wind

**Grand Isle police department has reported to The Weather Channel that their wind instrument logged a gust to 148 mph before becoming knocked out

**Gust to 82 mph just reported by National Weather Service station near Grand Isle (Galliano… South Lafourche Airport)

...SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 12:45 PM EDT...

The following are special updates on landfalling Hurricane Ida in southeast Louisiana… and also tropical depression eleven in the open central Atlantic which has strengthened into Tropical Storm Julian


MAJOR HURRICANE IDA… Satellite image of Hurricane Ida taken at 1446Z:


Ida’s eye approaching landfall at southeastern Louisiana with 150 mph max sustained winds while featuring a 933 mb central pressure. The recent rise in pressure from 930 to 933 indicates that strengthening has likely ended. Catastrophic wind and coastal storm surge damage produced by the fierce category 4 winds in the eye are currently slamming Grand Isle… Port Sulphur… Empire… Port Fourchon… Golden Meadow… Galliano and vicinity. If in southeast Louisiana… be prepared to shelter indoors with as many walls between you and the outside as much as possible as hurricane force winds are expected.… and hopefully you have relocated to higher ground if in an area prone to coastal storm surge.


**Interests across the United States Gulf coast in the hurricane and tropical storm advisory region across Louisiana... Mississippi... and Alabama should have finished preparing by now as weather conditions will deteriorate today. Preparations should have included evacuating to higher ground further inland if you live in an area prone to coastal storm surge flooding... and accounting for the expectation of damaging winds with widespread power outages.

**As Ida will take time to weaken inland after landfall... tropical storm force winds with some damage potential could spread inland across southeast Louisiana... southern Mississippi... and southwestern Alabama late today and into Monday... preparations should have finished by now.

**Coastal sea swells will be possible for the Florida panhandle coast where the east side of the strong hurricane will tend to push water toward shore well away from the center of circulation.

**Heavy rains with flash flooding potential from Ida and its remnants will spread onshore late today and into early next week across southeast Louisiana… Mississippi… western Florida panhandle… Alabama… Tennessee… Kentucky… West Virginia… and possibly into the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US later on.


Here are some of the latest observations of wind (in mph) logged by National Weather Service stations:

**Boothville LA… sustained 24… gust 46 (4 AM CDT… winds are likely higher now as the station has stopped reporting over the last several hours)

**Grand Isle LA… sustained 37… gust 64 (11:15 AM CDT)

**New Orleans LA… sustained 26… gust 47 (now)

**Hammond LA… sustained 14… gust 23 (now)

**Baton Rouge LA… sustained 12 (now)

**Gulfport MS… sustained 22… gust 35 (7:53 AM CDT)

**McComb MS… sustained 13… gust 24 (now)

**Hattiesburg MS… sustained 10… gust 26 (9:53 AM CDT)

**Mobile AL… sustained 29… gust 37 (9:53 AM CDT)

**Monroeville AL… sustained 14… gust 22 (now)


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (RECENTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIAN)… Satellite image of Tropical Storm Julian taken at 1630Z:

Tropical depression eleven in the open central Atlantic has intensified into Tropical Storm Julian as of 11 AM EDT. Julian is turning northeast in the flow out ahead of the amplifying northwest Atlantic upper trough and it’s surface frontal low. Julian is taking advantage of upper divergence on the east side of the amplifying upper trough… and given that the max sustained winds are already at 50 mph I agree with the NHC intensity forecast of 65 mph max sustains winds by 24 hours. Also by 24 hours… Julian will reach cooler waters… but with continued supportive upper divergence supplied by the upper trough it will transition into a gale force frontal cyclone.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1200Z Aug 29)… 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered at 35.1N-46.8W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Aug 30)… 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm transitioning into a non-tropical frontal cyclone at 39.8N-40W


For more information on Ida… tropical depression ten… as well as the rest of the Atlantic tropics… refer to full update #94 available on the home page of this site.

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