BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #94A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

…UPDATE… SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 6:26 AM EDT…

Ida’s maximum sustained winds are now 145 mph in the eye with a central pressure of 946 mb according to the latest data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)… additional strengthening to 150 mph max sustained winds is possible before landfall in southeast Louisiana.

…UPDATE… SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 6:09 AM EDT…

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida taken at 0936Z:


Ida nearing southeastern Louisiana while strengthening further to 140 mph max sustained winds while featuring a 946 mb central pressure… additional strengthening to 150 mph max sustained winds is possible before landfall. Based on the latest Doppler

Radar… if the current track continues the eye will come ashore near Grand Isle… Port Sulphur… Empire… Port Fourchon… Golden Meadow… Galliano and vicinity with catastrophic wind damage and coastal storm surge later today. If in southeast Louisiana… be prepared to shelter indoors with as many walls between you and the outside as much as possible as hurricane force winds are expected.… and hopefully you have relocated to higher ground if in an area prone to coastal storm surge. See update from 2:36 AM EDT below for more info on other impacts Ida is expected to bring.


Here are some of the latest observations of wind (in mph) logged by National Weather Service stations as Ida approaches:

**Boothville LA… sustained 24… gust 46 (now)

**Grand Isle LA… sustained 12… gust 21 (now)

**New Orleans LA… sustained 22 (now)

**Hammond LA… sustained 6 (now)

**Gulfport MS… sustained 14… gust 21 (now)

**McComb MS… sustained 6 (now)

**Hattiesburg MS… sustained 8 (now)

**Mobile AL… sustained 15… gust 25 (now)


…UPDATE… SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 2:58 AM EDT…

The latest aircraft recon data has found Ida at 130 mph maximum sustained winds with a 949 mb central pressure… Ida is now a category 4 hurricane. Additional intensification remains possible… and I have once again revised my landfall intensity projection and now forecast 150 mph maximum sustained winds. Landfall is expected in southeast Louisiana later today… wind damage in the eye will be catastrophic. See update from 2:36 AM EDT below for more information on Ida.


...SUNDAY AUGUST 29 2021 2:36 AM EDT...

Satellite image of Hurricane Ida taken at 0611Z:

While on approach to southeast Louisiana… Ida attains major hurricane status while reaching 115 mph maximum sustained winds which makes it a category 3. The central pressure has sharply declined from 964 mb to 955 mb in three hours… indicating rapid intensification has occurred. Conditions remain favorable for additional intensification as the hurricane has walled off the dry air that was previously disrupting it… and the hurricane remains in a vast area of low shear… upper outflow… and warm water. As a result… I have raised my landfall intensity forecast from 125 mph in full update #94… and now project a landfall intensity of 140 mph category 4 maximum sustained winds.


**Interests across the United States Gulf coast in the hurricane and tropical storm advisory region across Louisiana... Mississippi... and Alabama should have finished preparing by now as weather conditions will deteriorate today. Preparations should have included evacuating to higher ground further inland if you live in an area prone to coastal storm surge flooding... and accounting for the expectation of damaging winds with widespread power outages. Wind damage in southeast Louisiana near the center of where Ida comes in is expected to be catastrophic.

**As Ida will take time to weaken inland after landfall... tropical storm force winds with some damage potential could spread inland across southeast Louisiana... southern Mississippi... and southwestern Alabama late today and into Monday... finish preparing now.

**Coastal sea swells will be possible for the Florida panhandle coast where the east side of the strong hurricane will tend to push water toward shore well away from the center of circulation.

**Heavy rains with flash flooding potential from Ida and its remnants will spread onshore late today and into early next week across southeast Louisiana… Mississippi… western Florida panhandle… Alabama… and possibly into the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US later on.


Here are some of the latest observations of wind (in mph) logged by National Weather Service stations as Ida approaches:

**Boothville LA… sustained 20… gust 33 (12:49 AM CDT)

**New Orleans LA… sustained 24… gust 37 (11:53 PM CDT)

**Hammond LA… calm (now)

**Gulfport MS… sustained 14… gust 22

**Mobile AL… sustained 14


For more information on Ida… tropical depressions ten and eleven… as well as the rest of the Atlantic tropics… refer to full update #94 available on the home page of this site.

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