MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #92A (Special Update)
Updated: Aug 28, 2021
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...UPDATE...FRIDAY AUGUST 27 2021 5:03 PM EDT...
As of this writing... the NHC intensity forecast for the United States Gulf coast landfall late Sunday has also been increased to category 4 status... and is slightly higher than my updated intensity forecast below while projecting 140 mph maximum sustained winds.
...FRIDAY AUGUST 27 2021 4:40 PM EDT...
Satellite image of Hurricane Ida centered between the Isle of Youth and mainland western Cuba as of 1940Z:
Ida has strengthened into a hurricane ahead of previous forecasts while now crossing western Cuba territories... this special update is to increase my intensity forecast which now calls for Ida to reach category 4 hurricane strength while in the Gulf of Mexico... the potential for a life-threatening and historic hurricane landfall along the United States Gulf coast is increasing. I have also adjusted the track forecast points south and west based on the hurricane's current position.
**Interests in western Cuba should be sheltered indoors until the tropical storm and hurricane force winds associated with Ida subside later tonight. Heavy rainfall with flood potential and coastal sea swells will be additional hazards.
**Interests in the Florida Keys will likely not to see gusty winds from Ida with the latest forecast track... however coastal sea swells and heavy rain is still possible late tonight and into Saturday from the outer northeast bands of Ida.
**Interests across the United States Gulf coast in the hurricane and tropical storm watch region across Louisiana... Mississippi... and Alabama should continue preparing for what is forecast to be a strong and potentially historic hurricane Ida. Preparations should include a plan for evacuating to higher ground further inland if you live in an area prone to coastal storm surge flooding... and accounting for the expectation of damaging winds with widespread power outages. Wind damage near the center of where Ida comes in could be very significant...but pinpointing the exact landfall location of the center is hard to do this early. Ida is expected to be upon the region by late Sunday.
**As Ida will take time to weaken inland after landfall... tropical storm force winds with some damage potential could spread inland across southeast Louisiana... southern Mississippi... and southwestern Alabama late Sunday and into Monday... continue preparing now.
**Coastal sea swells will be possible for the Florida panhandle coast late this weekend where the east side of a strong hurricane Ida will tend to push water toward shore well away from the center of circulation.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z Aug 27)... 75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the Isle of Youth of western Cuba at 21.6N-82.7W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Aug 28)... 100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the Gulf of Mexico at 26N-87W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Aug 29).,. 135 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over southeastern Louisiana at 29.5N-89.8W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Aug 30)… Remnant low centered over northeastern Mississippi at 33.5N-89W
See full update #92 available on the home page of this site for more information on Ida and the rest of the Atlantic tropics.