BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #81A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE...MONDAY AUGUST 16 2021 1:15 PM EDT...

Fred bringing tropical storm force gusts (near 40 mph) onshore on the Florida panhandle... preparations for Fred across the panhandle and southeastern Alabama should have been completed by now as weather conditions are deteriorating. Here are some of the latest National weather service station reports of wind (in mph).

**Panama City FL...sustained 22...gust 39 (now)

**Apalachicola FL...sustained 21... gust 37 (now)

**Tallahassee FL...sustained 21 (10:53 AM EDT)

**De Funiak Springs FL...sustained 5 (now)

**Perry FL...sustained 16...gust 24 (12:35 PM EDT)

**Dothan AL...sustained 12 (10:53 AM EDT)

**Mobile AL...sustained 12 (8:53 AM EDT)


See updates from 8:55 AM and 7:48 AM EDT for more information on expectations from Fred. For information on Tropical Depression Grace and Tropical Depression Eight which are also expected bring impacts to land areas... refer to full update #81 available on the home page of this site.


...UPDATE...MONDAY AUGUST 16 2021 8:55 AM EDT...

As of 8:30 AM EDT (7:30 AM CDT) the National Hurricane Center aircraft reconnaissance data has indicated Fred has intensified to 60 mph maximum sustained winds...and the surface center is relocated to the east closer to the mid-level center. Additional strengthening to 65 to 70 mph maximum sustained winds (just below hurricane force) is possible given that the surface center is more aligned with the thunderstorms and mid-level center. The surface center relocation has reduced the potential for wind and rain impacts to southwestern Alabama (Mobile area and points north)...however these impacts are still expected for southeastern Alabama. Interests across southeastern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle should be rushing preparations for tropical storm conditions (coastal sea swells... heavy rains with flash flooding potential...and gusty potentially damaging winds) to completion. See update from 7:48 AM EDT below for more info on expectations from Fred.


...MONDAY AUGUST 16 2021 7:48 AM EDT...

Interests across southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle should be rushing preparations for tropical storm conditions (coastal sea swells... heavy rains with flash flooding potential...and gusty potential damaging winds) from Fred to completion. The surface and mid-level centers of Fred are not quiet aligned due to light southwesterly upper-level shear across the region... with the mid-level center and its currently strong thunderstorm complex about to cause weather conditions to deteriorate as it is closer to land than the surface center. In addition... the eastern side of this thunderstorm complex will bring heavy rains with flash flooding potential to to the eastern Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia. Coastal sea swells will also be possible on the eastern Florida panhandle and west coast of the Florida peninsula. The tropical storm currently has 50 mph maximum sustained winds... but are forecast to increase before the surface center makes landfall due to the current intensity of the thunderstorm complex.


Here are some of the latest National weather service station reports of wind (in mph).

**Panama City FL...sustained 14...gust 22 (now)

**Apalachicola FL...sustained 16... gust 33 (3:53 AM EDT)

**Tallahassee FL...sustained 13 (now)

**De Funiak Springs FL...calm (now)

**Dothan AL...sustained 7 (now)

**Mobile AL...sustained 8 (now)


For information on Tropical Depression Grace and Tropical Depression Eight... refer to full update #81 available on the home page of this site.

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