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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...SUNDAY AUGUST 15 2021 2:50 PM EDT...

The following is a special update on Fred… Grace… and also the disturbance near Bermuda.

TROPICAL STORM FRED…Satellite image of Fred taken at 1800Z:

The remnants of Fred have already regenerated into a tropical storm while moving northwest across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However thru 2 PM EDT the tropical storm has not strengthened beyond 40 mph max sustained winds… therefore it is still forecast to make landfall with 50 mph max sustained winds in the next 24 hours. Interests in the forecast landfall region… the western Florida panhandle and southern Alabama… should be preparing for tropical storm conditions. See full update #80 from last night… available on the home page of this site… for more info on Fred as not much has changed on its expectations.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE…Satellite image of Grace taken at 1800Z:

Grace’s circulation has consolidated further south in the overnight hours and into today… the updated forecast track means the following as far as impacts:

**Gusty winds and heavy rains for Puerto Rico… the Virgin Islands… and the Dominican Republic from now thru tomorrow. Interests in the Dominican Republic should be finishing preparations for tropical storm conditions this afternoon

**Haiti and Cuba are likely to see predominantly heavy rain from Grace on Tuesday and Wednesday as the updated forecast track increases land interaction. And combined with potentially less favorable upper level winds… the wind strength of Grace will tend to be on the low side.

**Impacts are now less likely for the Bahamas and south Florida

DISTURBANCE NEAR BERMUDA… Satellite image of Invest 96-L near Bermuda (1800Z):

No changes with the disturbance… interests in Bermuda should be aware that this system will move slowly over or near the island over the next 60 hours… with a possible prolonged period of heavy rains and maybe gusty winds should further development in fact occur. See full update #80 from last night… available on the home page of this site… for more info on this system.

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