MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #8
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY JUNE 2 2021 8:55 PM EDT...
The surface trough of low pressure that was over the western Bahamas has moved into south Florida and dissipated....see area of interest #1 section below for details. It is quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...The western Bahamas surface trough of low pressure previously supported by the eastern divergence zone of upper vorticity in the region stayed southwest of my previous forecast....arriving to the southwest Florida peninsula coast as of 1200Z. This placed the surface trough beneath the west side of the upper vorticity and southeast side of the eastern US upper ridge where upper convergence suppressed thunderstorm activity (if the surface trough had stayed further north underneath the eastern US upper ridge axis...conditions for t-storms would have been more suitable with the outflow of the ridge). As of 1800Z the surface trough is dissipated and removed from the NHC TAFB surface analysis...and as such this is my final statement on this disturbance on this blog.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z GFS Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown through 168 hours (7 days)