MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #66
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY JULY 31 2021 10:14 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 2040Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1200Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1200Z:
The cold front that has entered the western Atlantic from the eastern US…while driven by the frontal cyclone over southeast Canada…is now producing thunderstorm clusters over the coastal Carolinas and waters offshore all the way toward the waters north of Bermuda. Although this activity is aided by the outflow of an offshore extension of the current southern United States sprawling upper ridge where wind shear is also low…there are currently no signs of tropical development in the region.
Elsewhere…conditions in the low-latitudes of the tropical Atlantic will soon return to a more favorable state as the upward-motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shifting east into the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). All global computer models agree on showing lowering surface pressures in the eastern tropical Atlantic in the coming days...perhaps a signature of vigorous tropical waves of low pressure emerging from Africa being aided by the MJO's arrival and also the outflow and divergence of the eastern tropical Atlantic upper ridge axis forecast to perist over the next several days. Therefore an area of interest may emerge in the eastern tropical Atlantic in the coming days.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...no tropical cyclone formation shown in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days (168 hours)
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
**Strong tropical wave of low pressure enters the eastern Atlantic from Africa in next 24 hours…develops a broad low pressure spin near 12.5N-32.5W at 72 hours…center of spin reaches 12.5N-46W by 120 hours.
1800Z GFS Model Run...
**Current cold front over north-central US overruns current front over the west Atlantic by 30 hours while driven quickly southeast by current centra Canada shortwave upper trough…compact tropical cyclone formation along the front suggested offshore of northeastern North Carolina at 69 hours near 36.5N-73W…passes just offshore of Cape Cod Massachusetts at 84 hours while transitioning to a non-tropical frontal low over cooler water.
**Strong tropical wave of low pressure enters the eastern Atlantic from Africa in next 24 hours…develops a low pressure spin near 10.5N-24.5W at 36 hours…wave loses low pressure spin near 35W longitude at 78 hours.
**Additional low pressure spin along a tropical wave develops just southeast of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 57 hours…low pressure moves slowly northwest into the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands and dissipates by 78 hours.
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run... no tropical cyclone formation shown in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days (168 hours)