MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #54 (Weekend Edition)
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY JULY 18 2021 11:07 PM EDT...
Satellite image as of 2220Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1800Z:
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1800Z:
The tropical waves of low pressure that was over the western Caribbean Sea yesterday has seen another increase in thunderstorms while moving across the Yucatan peninsula and southern Gulf of Mexico while located in a zone of split flow upper divergence between an upper ridge cell over Texas and the west end of tropical upper ridging located in the Caribbean. However recently the thunderstorm activity is weakening as the tropical wave moves toward the axis of upper vorticity in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where upper divergence is lacking…therefore tropical development is not expected in this region.
Tropical development in the Atlantic basin has been suppressed by low-latitude (southern located) upper vorticity toward the west side of the basin and dry Saharan air toward the east side of the basin. However computer model runs insist that on Tuesday a strong tropical wave of low pressure from Western Africa will emerge into the eastern tropical Atlantic. The current configuration of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has favored suppressed thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic tropics since July started (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). While the recent upheaval of activity in the eastern Pacific suggests the favorable phase of the MJO might finally be shifting back east toward the Atlantic…the favorable MJO pulse may not make it east all the way to the forecast tropical wave…and none of today’s model runs develop the wave after it enters the Atlantic…perhaps as the wave is also forecast to exit Africa a little further to the north where it may ingest dry Saharan air. Therefore for now… I have not declared a new area of interest for the forecast tropical wave.