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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...MONDAY JUNE 14 2021 8:14 AM EDT...

Frontal low pressure system offshore of North Carolina quickly develops well-organized thunderstorms overnight...formation of a tropical depression or storm is likely over the next few hours today! This system will be steered quickly northeast by the upper trough and developing surface frontal low currently moving into eastern alignment with the upper SW flow ahead of the upper trough which thus could reduce the shear over this system...and in fact the divergence on the east side of the upper trough may instead aid this system’s thunderstorms and tropical development. Tropical development after 24 hours will be precluded by arrival to cooler waters and absorption into the much larger surface frontal low. This system will bring choppy seas to marine interests offshore of the northeast US and Atlantic Canada...with brief episodes of coastal sea swells and rip currents along the US Mid-Atlantic and New England as well as the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coasts of Atlantic Canada should this system quickly intensify into a tropical storm.

For the potential Gulf of Mexico tropical development this week...see full post #19 on the home page of this site.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 15)...90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east-southeast of Cape Cod Massachusetts near 39.5N-67.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 16)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (absorbed by frontal low to the west while located just offshore of SW Newfoundland near 46.5N-59W)

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