MY 2021 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #142
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…FRIDAY OCTOBER 22 2021 12:15 AM EDT...
Satellite image as of 0220Z. Areas of interest circled in yellow are not mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a green dashed line are in the NHC 5-day tropical weather outlook. Areas circled in a solid green line are in the NHC 2-day tropical weather outlook:
NHC TAFB Surface Analysis 1800Z (Wednesday Oct 20):
GFS Model Upper-Level Winds 1800Z (Wednesday Oct 20):
A large area of cold core upper vorticity is currently located over the northeastern Pacific to the south of Alaska while a deep-layer warm upper ridge is over western Canada. Over the next few days… computer models forecast a piece of this upper vorticity to slide east across the United States and to the south of the deep-layer ridge. Models have trended with a sooner landfall of the remainder of the northeastern Pacific upper vorticity… which results in a less amplified Canadian upper ridge and equally less amplified United States upper vorticity… especially as that vorticity moves into the northwest Atlantic. As a result… the potential for subtropical cyclone development in the northwest Atlantic offshore of the eastern US… in the 5 to 6 day window… has decreased as the less amplified upper vorticity would be more hostile while producing more westerly shear.
Elsewhere… tropical development in the Atlantic basin appears unlikely over the next seven days.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Oct 21) CMC Model Run…No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z (Oct 21) ECMWF Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1800Z (Oct 21) GFS Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)
1800Z (Oct 21) NAVGEM Model Run... No tropical cyclone formation forecast over the next 7 days (168 hours)