MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #64
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY JULY 18 2020 4:44 PM EDT...
Conditions in the eastern tropical Atlantic to the south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands appear to be becoming gradually more favorable for tropical development as tropical waves of low pressure exiting Africa have been able to gradually increase thunderstorm activity to the southeast of the dry saharan air layer that has been dominating the region. In addition the tropical waves are being supported by a regime of low shear and upper outflow induced by a broad tropical upper ridge...and some of the recent computer model runs suggest possible development here in the coming days. Therefore should any signs of organization occur in the thunderstorm activity...will consider declaring an area of interest for tropical development.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...Develops tropical wave currently at 35W into a tropical low pressure center near 10N-37.5W in 36 hours...tropical low shown developing into compact tropical cyclone near 13.5N-54W in 132 hours.
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
1200Z GFS Model Run...In 72 hours suggest tropical wave will emerge from western Africa and move into the eastern tropical Atlantic as a broad tropical low pressure...tropical wave loses its well-defined state near 41W longitude by 132 hours without developing into a tropical cyclone.
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...In 30 hours develops a tropical low pressure center south of the Republic of Cabo Verde near 12N-23W...tropical low drifts slowly north-northeast and loses its identity just southeast of the islands near 13.5N-21W in 96 hours. Elsewhere...develops a second tropical low pressure near 10N-34W in 54 hours that slowly drifts west-northwest and dissipates near 12.5N-38W in 156 hours.