MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #63
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...FRIDAY JULY 17 2020 10:37 AM EDT...
Conditions in the eastern tropical Atlantic to the south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands appear to be becoming gradually more favorable for tropical development as tropical waves of low pressure exiting Africa have been able to gradually increase thunderstorm activity to the southeast of the dry saharan air layer that has been dominating the region. In addition the tropical waves are being supported by a regime of low shear and upper outflow induced by a broad tropical upper ridge...and some of the more recent computer model runs suggest possible development here in the coming days. Therefore should any signs of organization occur in the thunderstorm activity...will consider declaring an area of interest for tropical development.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run...Develops tropical wave currently exiting western Africa into compact tropical cyclone south-southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde near 12N-25W in 60 hours...cyclone lifts west-northwest and dissipates by 102 hours.
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z GFS Model Run...In 96 hours suggest tropical wave will emerge from western Africa and move into the eastern tropical Atlantic as a broad tropical low pressure...tropical wave loses its well-defined state near 40W longitude by 156 hours without developing into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere...shows the tropical wave currently approaching the Lesser Antilles near 58W longitude eventually arriving into the Gulf of Mexico with a region of low shear and enhanced outflow in between splitting halves of the upper vorticity in the region...resulting in possible tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf near 25N-91W in 138 hours.
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run...Develops tropical wave currently exiting western Africa into a low pressure center south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 10.5N-23W in 42 hours...while drifting slowly northeastward develops into possible tropical cyclone south-southeast of the islands near 12N-21.5W in 60 hours...weakens and loses its definition just east of the islands by 120 hours.