*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY JULY 14 2020 10:00 AM EDT...
Even though most of the tropical Atlantic is covered by upper ridging which promotes tropical development (with the exception of the central Caribbean to the waters east of the Lesser Antilles where upper vorticity is present)...the Atlantic tropics are quiet due to a large swath of dry saharan air being propelled from Africa by easterly flow on the north side of tropical waves of low pressure exiting Africa and on the south side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z CMC Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
0000Z ECMWF Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z GFS Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
0600Z NAVGEM Model Run...No tropical cyclone formation shown in the next 7 days (168 hours)
Comentários