MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #28
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY JUNE 10 2020 4:57 PM EDT...
See area of interest section below for an update on the broad frontal low pressure system east of Bermuda. It is quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...A lengthy upper trough extends north-south across the western Atlantic in the vicinity of 55W longitude. A 1214 dekameter height (at 200 mb) upper vortex is along this trough in the vicinity of 32.5N latitude whose eastern divergence yesterday generated a broad surface low pressure along the surface cold front of the upper trough. Due to the expansive nature of the longwave upper ridge over eastern North America...supported by the warm air advection ahead of Cristobal's remnant frontal cyclone...the upper trough and vortex have shifted eastward directly over the broad surface low which is now located at 32.5N-55W. The lack of divergence directly below the upper vortex center should prevent any additional strengthening and consolidation of the broad surface low which would be needed for subtropical cyclone formation...in fact the broad surface low is shown in the models to now weaken going forward under these conditions. Therefore I am (and also the National Hurricane Center is) lowering odds of subtropical cyclone formation to 0%. This is my final statement on this feature on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 11)...0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (east of Bermuda near 32.5N-55W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...For area of interest #1...weakens frontal low pressure to a surface trough by 30 hours.
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...For area of interest #1...weakens frontal low pressure to a surface trough along 60W longitude by 48 hours.
1200Z GFS Model Run...For area of interest #1...weakens frontal low pressure to a surface trough along by 24 hours.
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...For area of interest #1...weakens frontal low pressure to a surface trough along 57.5W longitude by 42 hours.